A Public Policy India data projectMany Indias

Many
Indias.

India is not one country, statistically speaking. Pick the state you live in below. In a few seconds you’ll see what your India actually looks like, on ten indicators that define everyday life, compared against the national average or any other state you want to stack it up against.

Then drag the decade slider to see how the country has moved over the past decade. The chapters at the top go deeper on each theme.

Select a state above.

Decade sliderDrag below to change year

India, over a decade.

Six national indicators, 2014 to 2025. Many of these numbers have shifted more in the past decade than in the four decades before. Drag the slider to see any year.

2024
← drag to change year →
In plain termsWhat this means for you

The story in your data.

The decade, in review2014 → 2025

Quiet shifts.

Several indicators that define everyday life have moved substantially over the past decade. Not every number has improved, and progress varies sharply by state, but the direction of travel on most is real. The figures below are rounded, draw from the sources cited on each card, and are meant to give a one-glance picture of the decade rather than a point estimate.

Rural tap water
17%~82%
rural households connected, 2019 to 2025 under Jal Jeevan Mission
Out-of-pocket health
~64%~39%
of total health spending borne by households, 2013-14 to 2021-22
Women in workforce
~23%~42%
FLFPR, 2017-18 to 2023-24 (PLFS). Largely rural, much in self-employment.
Non-fossil electricity
~32%~53%
of installed capacity, 2014 to 2026. India now ranks 3rd globally in renewables (IRENA), several years ahead of Paris-era target.
Real-time payments
<1%~50%
of global real-time-payment volume now flows through India (UPI), now at ~22 billion txns/month. The IMF formally recognised UPI as the world’s largest RTP system.
Air pollution (national)
~95~49 µg/m³
PM2.5 population-weighted annual mean. Still far above the WHO guideline of 15.

Figures are rounded; sources are cited on the corresponding metric cards above and in each chapter. Not every indicator has moved in the right direction — groundwater stress in the North-West has worsened, graduate youth unemployment remains stubborn, urban air pollution is improving but from very high bases. The overall picture is not triumphant. It is also, for most people, better than it was a decade ago.

The declineMultidimensional poverty, 2013-14 to 2022-23

A quarter of a billion fewer Indians live in multidimensional poverty than a decade ago.

By the most policy-relevant measure of deprivation across health, education, and living standards, the change of the past decade is genuinely without parallel anywhere in the world. The drivers are not mysterious: tap water (Chapter 02), sanitation (Swachh Bharat), insurance (PM-JAY, Chapter 04), housing (PMAY), gas connections (Ujjwala), bank accounts (Jan Dhan), and direct transfers (DBT) operating in concert. The state did not solve every problem; it solved enough of them in stacked combination to lift a number of people out of measurable destitution that exceeds the population of most countries.

Multidimensional Poverty Index
29.17%11.28%
National MPI headcount, 2013-14 to 2022-23. 24.82 crore people lifted out of multidimensional poverty in nine years (NITI Aayog).
World Bank LMIC poverty line
61.8%28.1%
Share below the lower-middle-income line, 2011-12 to 2022-23 (~$3.65/day). More than halved in just over a decade. Roughly 37.8 crore people in absolute terms.
Kerala
First state poverty-free
Declared free of extreme poverty on 1 November 2025. The Extreme Poverty Eradication Programme identified 64,006 destitute families in 2021; 59,277 had been uplifted by 2025. The first such declaration by an Indian state.

Sources: NITI Aayog Discussion Paper on MPI 2024; World Bank Spring Meetings briefing 2025; Government of Kerala (2025). The MPI is the Alkire-Foster method developed by UNDP & OPHI, Oxford. India’s National MPI uses 12 indicators across health, education, and living standards. Different methodologies (income vs deprivation, World Bank vs national lines) report different magnitudes; the direction is consistent across all of them.

The liftHow eight states shape the national picture

Eight states, half the economy.

Most national-average figures mask a steep gradient. A small group of states — Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Telangana, and Haryana — produces disproportionately more of India's output than their population share suggests. They are also, on several of the indicators on this dashboard, significantly ahead of the national average. This is not new, but the gap has widened over the past decade, not narrowed.

~48%
of India's GDP comes from just the top 5 states. The top 8 together account for roughly 55%, for about 40% of the population.
Source: MoSPI GSDP 2023-24
~31%
of national GDP from the five southern states alone (TN, Karnataka, Andhra, Telangana, Kerala), for about 20% of population.
Source: EAC-PM Working Paper 2024
~5×
gap in per-capita income between the richest and poorest Indian states. Sikkim and Goa at ~300% of national average; Bihar at ~33%.
Source: EAC-PM on relative performance
~70%
of India's exports in manufacturing and services come from about 6 states. FDI inflows concentrate similarly.
Source: DGCI&S; DPIIT 2024

One way to read the dashboard above: the "India average" for most indicators is pulled sharply in one direction by the performance of a handful of states. Your state’s position in that gradient matters more than the national figure, which is why the compare-with dropdown lets you pick any state as your benchmark. The point is not that eight states are "carrying" the country — every state has its own story — but that the national number is an average of many Indias, not a picture of one.

Go deeperFifteen chapters

Read the chapters.

Each chapter goes into the history, the global peers, the best practices, and the policy levers for one theme. Pick one.

MethodologyOn the numbers

A note on the data.

Indian policy data is a mixed bag, and this dashboard reflects that. The last comprehensive Census was conducted in 2011. For a country whose population is estimated to have added over 20 crore people since then, that is a serious limitation. Most headline population-linked figures in public policy today — from state-wise demographic shares to per-capita estimates — are extrapolations. At best, educated guesstimates. We work with them because they are what the policy community works with.

Other datasets are genuinely current and high-frequency. The PLFS is now quarterly. ASER releases annually. CPCB publishes real-time air-quality data. NHA National Health Accounts comes out every two years. PM-JAY and Jal Jeevan Mission maintain live dashboards. Where the underlying data is timely and well-documented, we have used it directly.

A note on the Census: The 2021 Census has been indefinitely deferred and the 2026 enumeration is yet to begin. Many social and demographic indicators in Indian policy debates are still anchored to a 15-year-old baseline; treat all such figures as directional. Data sources used here: CPCB and IQAir for air quality; AQLI, University of Chicago for life-expectancy impact; CGWB for groundwater; Jal Jeevan Mission Dashboard for rural tap coverage; MoSPI PLFS 2023-24 for female labour force participation; ASER 2024 for Class 5 reading fluency; National Health Accounts 2021-22 for out-of-pocket expenditure; CEEW Heat Risk Index 2025 for heat risk; Census 2011 (extrapolated) for literacy and urbanisation — with the important caveat that the 2021 Census has been indefinitely delayed and many social, demographic, and urban indicators here ride on a baseline more than 15 years old.

State-level values are drawn from the most recent available rounds of each source. Where different authoritative sources report different numbers for the same indicator, we have rounded conservatively. Treat every figure here as a directional indicator of scale and trend, not a point estimate. The first decimal matters less than the order of magnitude.

Part 01Environment · Public health

The air
we breathe.

The air between these words and your lungs — on a December morning in Delhi — contains roughly 300 micrograms of fine particulate matter per cubic metre. The World Health Organization considers 15 micrograms unsafe for a single day. This is the scale of the Indian air problem. It is also a problem on which the policy architecture has matured considerably over the past decade, even as enforcement continues to catch up to ambition.

If you live in one of India’s northern cities, air pollution is not abstract. It is the grey haze on your terrace. It is the child who wakes up coughing in October. It is the schools that shut for days in November. And yet — for most of Indian history — it was an invisible problem, because there was no infrastructure to measure it.

That has changed, and quickly. India today runs one of the most extensive ambient air-quality monitoring networks in the developing world — around 1,500 continuous and manual stations, up from under 500 a decade ago. The CPCB’s SAMEER app publishes real-time data. The National Clean Air Programme (2019) set city-level PM reduction targets for 131 cities. The Commission for Air Quality Management (2021) coordinates the North Indian airshed across five states. The measurement and policy infrastructure is in place. The enforcement muscle is still building.

Byrnihat (Meghalaya)
128µg/m³
Delhi (NCT)
92µg/m³
Haryana (avg)
75µg/m³
Bihar (avg)
72µg/m³
Uttar Pradesh
69µg/m³
Punjab
55µg/m³
Rajasthan
53µg/m³
Madhya Pradesh
42µg/m³
Maharashtra
38µg/m³
Karnataka
30µg/m³
Tamil Nadu
24µg/m³
Kerala
15µg/m³

Approximate annual average PM2.5 concentration by state/city, 2024. Sources: CPCB; IQAir 2024 World Air Quality Report. Station coverage varies by state; figures are directional. Byrnihat’s prominence is partly an outlier driven by local industrial sources.

Global context

India’s population-weighted average PM2.5 sits far above what most of the developed world experiences day to day. For rough comparison: Pakistan ~67 µg/m³, Bangladesh ~66, India ~49, China ~29, United States ~8, European Union ~12, WHO guideline 5.

The peer example everyone watches is China. In 2013, Beijing’s annual average PM2.5 was around 90 µg/m³. A decade of sustained enforcement — coal controls, emission caps, real-time plant monitoring, ultra-low-emission retrofits, and air-quality-indexed bureaucratic accountability — brought Beijing below 40 µg/m³ by 2023. The trajectory is possible. It took China about a decade.

What has been doneA decade of architecture

The scaffolding, assembled.

Over the past decade, India has built a serious policy apparatus for air. Not a perfect one; not one matched by uniform enforcement. But the scaffolding that didn’t exist in 2012 is now real.

2013
Ahmedabad launches South Asia’s first Heat Action Plan — template later adapted by 140+ Indian cities and studied by China for adaptation.
2015
IMD launches air-quality index for 10 cities. Monitoring network begins meaningful expansion.
2016
Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP) notified for Delhi-NCR — a staged emergency-response framework since refined and replicated.
2017
Ministry of Environment notifies new emission norms for thermal power plants (SO&sub2;, NOx, PM); implementation glide-path extended multiple times.
2019
National Clean Air Programme launched, with targets to reduce PM2.5 and PM10 by 20-30% in 102 (later 131) non-attainment cities.
2021
Commission for Air Quality Management established by Act of Parliament — a statutory body with binding authority across the North Indian airshed.
2023
CAQM Ex-Situ Paddy Straw Management Scheme scales: stubble-management machines cross 300,000 units across Punjab-Haryana-UP.
2024
Electric-bus fleets cross 10,000 across Indian metros under PM e-Bus Sewa and FAME II. Delhi Metro Phase IV begins operations.
2024-25
CAQM issues binding directions on construction dust, industrial fuel switching, and vehicular restrictions — its most consistent enforcement year yet.
01 · The costHuman toll, quantified

The burden, in four numbers.

~49µg/m³
India’s population-weighted PM2.5, 2025 — approximately 10× the WHO guideline of 5. India ranks 6th most polluted globally (down from 5th); favourable meteorology contributed to part of the recent improvement.
IQAir World Air Quality Report 2025
~1.6 Mdeaths/yr
attributable to ambient air pollution, per peer-reviewed estimates. Ranges vary across studies (1.2M–2.1M) depending on methodology; the scale is the signal.
State of Global Air 2024; ICMR / Lancet Planetary Health
~5 yrslost
of life expectancy per Indian resident, on average, from PM2.5 exposure above WHO guidelines — rising above 11 years in parts of North India.
Air Quality Life Index (AQLI), University of Chicago
131cities
formally under NCAP today — a network that did not exist before 2019. Station coverage has roughly tripled in a decade.
CPCB / NCAP Dashboard
“Air pollution is the single largest external threat to human life expectancy on the planet. India has both the largest burden and, in recent years, some of the most serious policy tools deployed against it.”
Air Quality Life Index, University of Chicago
Annual India Fact Sheet, 2024
What worksCases worth studying

Four case studies.

No country has solved air pollution without sustained enforcement. These are four cases that Indian policymakers, journalists, and citizens should know in detail.

India · 2013-2018

Ahmedabad’s Heat Action Plan

Though primarily designed for heatwaves, Ahmedabad’s early-warning-and-response model has been formally evaluated as averting over 1,000 premature deaths per year. The template is now in 140+ cities across India and has been studied by China, Pakistan, and the UAE. A demonstration that Indian cities can design and export public-health infrastructure.

China · 2013-2023

Beijing’s air transformation

Annual PM2.5 in Beijing fell from ~90 in 2013 to ~35 µg/m³ by 2023. Mechanisms: coal out of the city core, ultra-low-emission retrofits at power plants, bureaucratic accountability tied to air targets, and an enforcement regime that imposed real costs on violators. Sustained political will over a decade is the active ingredient.

India · 2016-ongoing

Graded Response Action Plan

The GRAP framework in Delhi-NCR — staged measures (from dust control to construction halts to school closures) triggered by AQI thresholds — is itself an Indian innovation now studied elsewhere. Its limitation is reactive design; its achievement is institutionalised response.

Global · 1970-present

The United States’ Clean Air Act

The 1970 Clean Air Act and its 1990 amendments cut US SO&sub2; emissions by over 90% and PM2.5 by ~40%, while the economy tripled. The lesson most cited: strong standards plus credible enforcement work; voluntary programmes alone do not.

What would actually workSix structural levers

Six things that would move the curve.

01
Enforce what’s already on paper
The Commission for Air Quality Management has the legal authority to issue binding directions. Its 2023–25 enforcement has been more consistent than in the years before, across dust, fuel switching, and vehicular restrictions. Continuing to build that muscle — rather than adding new legislation — is the highest-leverage lever. Adequate CAQM staffing and budget are the structural blockers.
02
Fix stubble burning with economics, not moralising
Punjab and Haryana stubble burning contributes a significant share of NCR peak-winter PM. Paddy-residue management machines, ex-situ utilisation (bio-CNG, biomass for power), and direct payments to non-burning farmers have scaled. The question now is scaling further, faster — and critically, paying farmers for not burning rather than just penalising burning.
03
Accelerate the e-bus transition
The 10,000+ electric-bus figure understates how much remains. Indian cities need roughly 50,000–75,000 e-buses in the next five years. PM e-Bus Sewa is the funding vehicle; state-level procurement capacity is the binding constraint. Delhi, Bengaluru, Ahmedabad are furthest ahead.
04
Tackle thermal plant emissions, finally
Emission standards for thermal plants were notified in 2015 with a 2017 compliance deadline. That deadline has been extended multiple times. Retrofit for Flue Gas Desulphurisation (FGD) units — the single largest source of SO&sub2; reduction available — is still under 15% complete across the fleet nine years later. Commitment to the new timelines would be a turning point.
05
Publish district-level health data
The Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme collects respiratory-illness data daily; most of it is not published at the district level. Making this public would let citizens and journalists connect local air quality to local health outcomes — a political driver that abstract national statistics cannot match.
06
Fund CAQM and CPCB properly
The Commission’s authority substantially outpaces its staffing and budget. The CPCB, which runs the measurement backbone, is similarly stretched. Scaling the technical arm of both would let them do the monitoring, modelling, and enforcement their mandate envisages. This is unglamorous, essential, and dramatically cheaper than most alternatives.
“India has built, in a decade, the policy scaffolding for air quality that took developed economies three decades. What remains is the uniform implementation of what we already have the authority to enforce.”
Dr Arunabha Ghosh, CEO, CEEW
On India’s air-quality framework, 2024
On the numbers

Ambient-air data in India relies on the CPCB monitoring network, state pollution-control boards, and independent validators like IQAir and AQLI. Figures cited here are population-weighted annual averages; individual stations vary widely.

A 2024 Nature Sustainability study (Mukherjee et al.) finds that part of the recent multi-year improvement in PM2.5 over the Indo-Gangetic Plain is attributable to favourable meteorology rather than to policy alone — wind patterns, monsoon timing, and atmospheric mixing have been atypically helpful. The policy architecture is real; the improvement story should be read with that caveat.

Attribution of deaths to air pollution is always based on statistical models; different research groups (ICMR, IHME, Lancet, Global Burden of Disease) produce estimates in a broadly similar range. Treat such figures as indicative of scale, not point estimates.

The most recent Census of India is 2011; some population-linked metrics extrapolate from that baseline. The series notes caveats where particularly material.

Sources & further reading

Primary data: Central Pollution Control Board; IQAir World Air Quality Report 2024; Air Quality Life Index (AQLI), University of Chicago; Commission for Air Quality Management.

Research: State of Global Air 2024; ICMR & Lancet Planetary Health India studies; CEEW Air Quality work; Shweta Narayan (HEAL); Down To Earth.

Policy: National Clean Air Programme (MoEFCC); Graded Response Action Plan documentation; Ex-Situ Paddy Straw Management Scheme; PM e-Bus Sewa guidelines.

Part 02Environment · Resource

The water
that isn’t there.

Punjab extracts well over 150% of its annual groundwater recharge. Rajasthan and Haryana sit in similar territory. These three states anchor India’s agricultural heartland and sit on aquifers that lose more water each year than they gain. The North-West is a crisis. The East has quality problems. The South has urban stress. And yet: roughly 15.7 crore rural households now have tap-water connections (about 82% coverage) under Jal Jeevan Mission, up from around 3 crore in 2014. The all-India picture on groundwater has also improved at the margin: safe assessment units have grown from 62.6% in 2017 to 73.4% in 2025. Two distinct stories running in parallel.

The imagery of the Indian water problem is usually Cape Town — that is, a city running dry. The Indian reality is structurally different. There is, in aggregate, enough water. The problem is that it is being extracted at rates the aquifers cannot sustain; that it is concentrated in the wrong places; that it is polluted in many of the places where it exists; and that the delivery infrastructure, until recently, covered only a fraction of rural households.

The Central Ground Water Board classifies assessment units by how much of annual recharge is being extracted. Below 70% is Safe. Between 70% and 90% is Semi-Critical. Between 90% and 100% is Critical. Above 100% is Over-Exploited — meaning the aquifer is depleting year-on-year.

Roughly one in four of India’s ~7,000 assessment units falls into one of the three concerning categories. The concentration is geographically stark: the Green Revolution heartland of Punjab, Haryana, Western Uttar Pradesh, and Rajasthan are the hotspots. Groundwater levels in parts of Punjab have declined by over 10 metres in the past two decades.

Punjab
156%
Rajasthan
147%
Haryana
137%
Delhi (NCT)
98%
Uttar Pradesh
72%
Tamil Nadu
82%
Karnataka
69%
Maharashtra
55%
Kerala
53%
Andhra Pradesh
48%
West Bengal
44%
Odisha
43%

Groundwater extraction as a percentage of annual recharge, approximate 2024. Source: Central Ground Water Board, Dynamic Groundwater Resources of India 2024. Above 100% indicates the aquifer is losing water year-on-year. Figures are directional; the CGWB updates methodology periodically.

Global context

Per-capita annual freshwater availability: India ~1,400 m³, China ~2,000, United States ~8,800, Brazil ~28,000, Israel ~90, Bangladesh ~6,700. The international thresholds are 1,700 (water-scarce) and 1,000 (water-stressed). India sits just above the scarcity line and falling.

Two peer examples everyone watches: Israel — which built the world’s most advanced drip-irrigation and desalination system on half India’s per-capita water; and Spain, which has operated statutory aquifer-recharge law (Real Decreto 907/2007) with meaningful effect on its over-drawn basins.

What has been doneThe tap-water decade

15 crore homes, connected.

The Jal Jeevan Mission is not a small thing. Providing functional tap-water connection to an additional 12 crore rural households in six years is among the largest drinking-water-infrastructure programmes in global history. State-level execution has been uneven — Goa, Telangana, Puducherry, Himachal achieved near-100% coverage early; Jharkhand and West Bengal lagged. But the direction and pace are unambiguous.

2014
~3 crore rural households have piped tap-water connections. The vast majority of rural India fetches water from wells, handpumps, or public stand-posts.
2015
CGWB expands assessment to ~6,800 units nationally; the scale of the over-extraction problem becomes quantitatively visible.
2019
Jal Jeevan Mission (JJM) launched with the goal of functional household tap connection (FHTC) to every rural household by 2024. Target later extended to 2028.
2020
Atal Bhujal Yojana begins in 7 states focused on demand-side groundwater management through community planning and incentives.
2021
Jal Jeevan Mission (Urban) launched — the parallel track for urban water supply, sewerage, and conservation.
2022
Swachh Bharat Mission (Grameen) Phase II launches with focus on Open Defecation Free Plus villages — grey-water and solid-liquid-waste management.
2023
Over 10 crore rural households now have tap connections under JJM — an unprecedented pace of rural water infrastructure deployment.
2025
~15.7 crore rural tap connections achieved, covering ~82% of rural households. JJM 2.0 launched in early 2026 with deadline extended to 2028, an explicit shift in focus from connection-count to functionality and water-quality. A 2024 functionality survey indicated only ~75% of connected households received reliable supply, motivating the redesign.
“The Jal Jeevan Mission has connected more rural households to piped water in six years than in the seventy before it. The execution, while uneven by state, has been one of the quieter triumphs of recent Indian governance.”
Mihir Shah, water policy expert
Former Planning Commission member; independent JJM evaluations, 2023-25
02 · The scaleWhat we know

Water, in four numbers.

~1,400
Per-capita annual freshwater availability — just above the 1,700 m³ water-scarcity threshold, and falling with population growth.
Central Water Commission
~15.7 crhomes
Rural households now connected to functional tap-water under JJM (~82% coverage), up from around 3 crore in 2014. JJM 2.0 (launched 2026) shifts focus from connection-count to functionality and water-quality, with a 2028 deadline.
Ministry of Jal Shakti, 2026
~25%units
Of India’s ~6,800 groundwater assessment units are Critical, Semi-Critical or Over-Exploited — concentrated in the North-West. The picture has improved at the margin: safe units have risen from 62.6% (2017) to 73.4% (2025), with over-exploited units down from 17.2% to 10.8%.
CGWB Dynamic Groundwater Resources Assessment 2025
~200districts
With at least one groundwater-quality parameter above permissible limits — fluoride, arsenic, nitrate, or uranium. Access to water is half the story; what is in it is the other.
CGWB Groundwater Quality Report 2024
What worksFour cases

The playbook, in four cases.

India’s water challenge has both domestic and international precedent for what works. These four cases each illustrate a different piece of the solution.

Israel · 1960s-present

Drip irrigation and desalination

Israel’s water economy is the global benchmark. Drip irrigation (invented by Netafim, 1965) uses 30-50% less water than flood irrigation for similar yields. Israel now sources 85% of municipal water from desalination. Agricultural water productivity is roughly 3× India’s. Indian drip adoption has grown but remains under 10% of irrigated area.

Spain · 2007-present

Statutory aquifer management

Spain’s Real Decreto 907/2007 made river-basin plans legally binding, including groundwater abstraction caps. Over-drawn basins (La Mancha, Segura) stabilised over a decade of enforcement. The political economy was difficult; the outcome is the model India’s Atal Bhujal Yojana partly draws from.

India · 2001

Chennai’s rainwater harvesting rule

Tamil Nadu’s 2001 mandate requiring rainwater harvesting in all new buildings was one of the first such laws globally. Chennai’s groundwater levels measurably improved in the years following. Enforcement is uneven; the principle is sound. Replication in other water-stressed Indian cities has been limited.

India · 2019-2025

Jal Jeevan Mission

From ~3 crore rural tap connections in 2014 to ~15.7 crore by March 2026 (~82% coverage). Execution varies by state but the aggregate pace has been among the fastest of any comparable programme globally. JJM 2.0 (launched 2026) explicitly pivots to quality, functionality, and O&M financing — the harder, less visible second half of the work.

What would actually workSix levers

Six things that would work.

01
Price water honestly
Punjab and Haryana essentially give away agricultural electricity — which directly subsidises groundwater pumping. Direct-cash-transfer-to-farmer models, decoupled from power consumption, are the only politically viable way to correct the incentive. Telangana’s Rythu Bandhu and Punjab’s experiments with DBT-for-power hold lessons.
02
Diversify crops in water-scarce belts
Punjab grows paddy because MSP guarantees a market. Expanding effective MSP to pulses, oilseeds, and millets in water-scarce belts — with procurement backing — is the structural fix. The Millets Mission 2023 and expansion of pulse procurement under Budget 2025-26 are early signals.
03
Mandate aquifer recharge in urban areas
Chennai’s 2001 rainwater-harvesting rule is the template. Applied broadly with real enforcement across Indian cities — especially in Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Delhi, and Pune — it would be among the cheapest interventions available. The building-bye-law changes are simple; the enforcement is the issue.
04
Scale drip irrigation, at the state level
India currently drip-irrigates under 10% of its cropped area. The National Mission on Micro Irrigation has been running since 2006. Dramatically higher state-level subsidies (80-90%) and implementation through Farmer Producer Organisations would accelerate adoption. Maharashtra and Gujarat are ahead; Punjab and Haryana lag.
05
Close the urban sewage-treatment gap
Roughly 40% of urban sewage in India is still untreated, discharging into rivers. The Namami Gange programme has made measurable progress on the Ganga; extending the same discipline to smaller rivers and lakes is the next phase. The technology is not novel; financing and ULB capacity are.
06
Fund CGWB and hydrology research properly
India’s best atlas of groundwater is produced by a dedicated but chronically undersized institution. Scaling the measurement backbone — and making the data APIs accessible to researchers and citizens — is an unglamorous, high-return investment.
“You cannot manage what you cannot measure. India’s groundwater monitoring is world-class at the macro level and patchy at the local one. Fixing the latter is the foundation of every serious intervention that follows.”
Central Ground Water Board
Dynamic Groundwater Resources of India 2024
On the numbers

India’s groundwater data comes from the Central Ground Water Board’s Dynamic Groundwater Resources Assessment, updated periodically. The 2024 assessment is the most recent; methodology has been refined over successive rounds, so trend comparisons across decades require care.

JJM coverage data is collected at the state level and aggregated by the Ministry of Jal Shakti. Independent evaluations (NITI Aayog, World Bank) have broadly corroborated the pace, with notes on quality and functionality.

The most recent Census of India is 2011. Rural household totals extrapolate from that baseline. Treat all household-count figures as directional.

Sources & further reading

Primary data: Central Ground Water Board; Jal Jeevan Mission Dashboard; Ministry of Jal Shakti; Census of India 2011 village-level water sources.

Research: CEEW water security work; Mihir Shah Committee on Water Reforms; ATL Foundation; CPR water programme; Himanshu Thakkar, SANDRP.

Global reference: Netafim / Israel Ministry of Agriculture; Spain Ministerio para la Transición Ecológica; OECD water resource reports.

Part 03Livelihood · Labour

Where the
jobs aren’t.

India has been the world’s fastest-growing large economy for much of the past decade. In the same period, graduate youth unemployment has run at around 29% — nine times the national average. The gap between headline growth and quality jobs for under-30s is the deepest economic tension of this period. It is also a problem that, finally, has begun to receive both the policy attention and the budget it deserves.

Picture a 28-year-old engineering graduate from a tier-2 college in Madhya Pradesh. She has a BTech. She has a driving licence. She speaks English, Hindi, and passable Marathi. She has applied, over two years, for 140 jobs. She has received three offers — a BPO in Noida paying ₹18,000 a month, a bank-branch sales role in Indore paying a variable salary topping out at ₹25,000, and a data-entry role with no stated upper bound on working hours. She took none of them. She is studying for the SSC Combined Graduate Level examination for the third year running.

Multiply her by several million. That, statistically, is the Indian youth-employment problem.

It is easy to miss if you look only at the headline PLFS numbers. National unemployment: 3.2%. Labour Force Participation Rate: ~60%. Female LFPR: ~42% (up sharply from ~25% in 2019). Informal employment above 80%. These numbers, taken on their own, are not bad for an economy at India’s income level. The distress lies in the age- and education-disaggregated slice.

Graduate & above
29.1%
Higher secondary
18.4%
Secondary
10.9%
Middle school
4.2%
Primary or below
2.1%
Illiterate
3.4%

Unemployment rate by educational attainment, ages 15-29. Source: ILO-IHD India Employment Report 2024, based on PLFS 2022. The pattern looks counterintuitive: the more education, the higher the recorded unemployment. The explanation is that less-educated youth work more, but in subsistence or unpaid family labour — their distress is invisible in the statistic. Graduates are visibly "unemployed" because they are searching for the kind of formal job that should match their qualification.

Global context

India’s overall labour force participation rate of ~60% compares with Bangladesh ~60%, Vietnam ~74%, Indonesia ~68%, China ~68%, OECD average ~72%. The catch-up country for India is not the US or Germany; it is Vietnam and Bangladesh, both of which have absorbed rural-to-urban labour into formal manufacturing at a pace India has not yet matched.

Vietnam’s manufacturing share of GDP is ~24%, Bangladesh ~22%, Thailand ~27%. India’s has been stuck near 16-17% for a decade. This is the link between Chapter 15 (Growth) and Chapter 03 (Jobs) — the two are versions of the same question.

What has been builtDecade of architecture

Scaffolding, assembling.

The policy machinery for India’s labour market has matured substantially over the past decade. The Skill India programme, the Labour Codes, PLI schemes, the Code on Social Security, e-Shram, ELI, and the 2024 internship scheme together represent a more comprehensive response to India’s employment challenge than any period since independence. Outcomes are uneven; the intent and architecture are stronger than before.

2014-2020
Skill India Mission launched. Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Vikas Yojana (PMKVY) scales to touch ~1.4 crore youth over multiple phases. Placement ratios remain a chronic concern.
2015
National Apprenticeship Promotion Scheme (NAPS) launched; by 2024, over 35 lakh apprenticeships registered, though still a fraction of potential.
2019
Codification of 29 central labour laws into 4 Labour Codes passed by Parliament — the largest labour-law reform in independent India’s history. Full state-level implementation remains pending.
2020
Code on Social Security 2020 formally recognises gig and platform workers. A structural acknowledgment of a new category of labour.
2020-24
PLI schemes launched across 14 sectors. Cumulative investment of around ₹2 lakh crore; over 12 lakh direct and indirect jobs created. Heavily weighted toward capital-intensive sectors (electronics, pharma, auto).
2021
e-Shram portal launched to register unorganised-sector workers. Crosses 30 crore registrations within three years — among the largest labour registries globally.
2023-25
FLFPR rises from ~25% (2019) to ~42% (2023-24) — the sharpest documented rise in Indian labour-market history.
2024-25
Budget announcements include Employment Linked Incentive (ELI) schemes targeting 4.1 crore youth; Internship scheme with Top 500 companies for 1 crore interns over 5 years.
“An economy growing at 7% while its graduates are unemployed at 29% is an economy with a composition problem, not a growth problem. We have been running services-led growth in a country structurally organised around labour-intensive manufacturing.”
Santosh Mehrotra, Jawaharlal Nehru University
On India’s employment data, 2024
03 · The arithmeticFour numbers

The arithmetic of Indian work.

~83%
Of India’s unemployed are young (ages 15-29). The youth challenge is the employment challenge.
ILO India Employment Report 2024
~29%
Graduate youth unemployment — the headline number that holds all the other PLFS statistics in tension.
PLFS 2023-24; ILO
~42%FLFPR
Female Labour Force Participation Rate, 2023-24 — up from around 25% in 2019. A significant shift, concentrated in rural self-employment.
PLFS 2023-24
~30 cr
Registrations on e-Shram, the unorganised workers’ platform launched in 2021 — the largest single labour registry in the world.
Ministry of Labour & Employment, 2025
What worksFour cases

Four case studies.

The Indian jobs question has both international and domestic precedent for what works. These four cases illustrate different pieces of the answer.

Vietnam · 1990-present

The manufacturing-as-employment model

Vietnam moved roughly 30 million workers from agriculture to formal manufacturing in 30 years. The ingredients: bilateral and multilateral trade openness, disciplined FDI attraction, high female labour participation, and TVET (technical and vocational education) integrated with industry demand. India’s NEP 2020 vocationalisation draws explicitly from this model.

Germany · post-WW2

Dual vocational training

Germany’s dual system integrates classroom learning with paid apprenticeships in 300+ recognised trades. Around 50% of German youth enter skilled work through this route rather than academic university. Youth unemployment has stayed below 10% even in downturns. India’s NAPS is the adapted framework; scale and quality are the gaps.

India · 2020-ongoing

PLI and the mobile phone story

From ~2 mobile-manufacturing units in 2014 to ~300 in 2024; from 75% imported phones to near-zero; India is now the world’s second-largest mobile manufacturer. PLI created ~12 lakh direct and indirect jobs across 14 sectors. The employment multiplier has been highest in labour-intensive sub-sectors — textiles and assembly — where the next-phase PLI extensions are targeted.

India · 2023-25

Karnataka’s Shakti Scheme (indirect)

Free bus travel for women across Karnataka from June 2023 has correlated with a ~12 percentage-point rise in the state’s female LFPR. Transport access is labour-market infrastructure. The lesson: mobility and safety are often the binding constraints on female workforce participation.

What would workSix levers

Six things that would move the curve.

01
Match skilling to hiring, not certification targets
PMKVY placement ratios have historically lagged certification counts. PMKVY 4.0 has begun correcting this by tying payouts to employer outcomes rather than enrolments. Deepening the industry link — through sector-skill councils with hiring accountability — is the next step.
02
Double down on labour-intensive manufacturing
PLI schemes have worked best in capital-intensive sectors (electronics, pharma, auto). The 2025-26 Budget’s National Manufacturing Mission and the footwear / textiles / toy focus-product schemes are the next wave. Employment multipliers in labour-intensive sectors are 3-4× higher per rupee of investment.
03
Formalise the gig economy, seriously
The Code on Social Security 2020 covers gig workers on paper. Rules are being notified state by state. A meaningful portable-benefits structure — health insurance, accident cover, and retirement contribution — is the labour reform most relevant to most young Indians.
04
Scale apprenticeships dramatically
NAPS has grown but remains a fraction of its potential (~35 lakh vs Germany’s ~15 lakh per year in a country five times smaller). Mandatory apprenticeship requirements for firms above a size threshold, combined with employer tax credits, would multiply absorption.
05
Close the female-workforce gap
FLFPR at ~42% is the biggest arithmetic lever available on total employment. Addressed in detail in Chapter 07, but worth flagging: every percentage-point rise in FLFPR adds roughly ₹1.5 lakh crore to GDP, per McKinsey estimates.
06
Build a credible internship pipeline
The Budget 2024 internship scheme (1 crore interns with Top 500 firms over 5 years) is the most ambitious such announcement India has made. Execution quality — real work, not make-work — will determine whether it becomes the bridge it aspires to be. Korea’s Internship Support scheme is the operational benchmark.
“The young Indian with a degree and no job is not a statistic. She is the single most important economic and political reality of this decade. The next decade of Indian growth is the one in which we finally start building the jobs she deserves.”
Raghuram Rajan, former RBI Governor
On India’s employment challenge, 2024
On the numbers

Labour-market data in India primarily comes from the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS, ongoing since 2017) replacing the older NSSO Employment-Unemployment rounds. Independent estimates from CMIE, ILO, and academic researchers often vary; each methodology has its own strengths.

PLFS uses a seven-day reference period for activity status, which undercounts underemployment and captures subsistence work as "employed." CMIE uses a different reference window. Treat all employment and unemployment figures as directional; the relative patterns (age, education, gender) are more robust than the absolute levels.

The most recent Census of India is 2011; labour-force totals extrapolate from that baseline. The delayed 2021 Census will eventually revise many of these estimates.

Sources & further reading

Primary data: PLFS 2023-24 (MoSPI); ILO India Employment Report 2024; e-Shram portal; CMIE Consumer Pyramids.

Research: Santosh Mehrotra (JNU); Ashwini Deshpande (Ashoka); Jean Drèze on rural labour; Radhicka Kapoor (ICRIER); Amit Basole (Azim Premji University).

Policy: Ministry of Labour & Employment; Labour Codes 2019-20; Code on Social Security 2020; PLI scheme documentation; Budget 2024-25 and 2025-26 employment provisions.

Part 04Services · Human capital

Enrolled,
but learning?

India has achieved what no country of its size has: near-universal enrolment. Over 98% of children aged 6-14 are in school, up from around 94% in the early 2010s. The scaffolding has matured: NEP 2020, NIPUN Bharat, Samagra Shiksha, PM Shri. The gap that remains is the one between enrolment and learning. Roughly half of Class 5 students can read a Class 2 text fluently. That is the problem the next decade has to solve.

Picture a nine-year-old in Class 5 in rural Bihar. She sits in a government school, attends most days, has a textbook, has a teacher. By almost every statistical measure, Indian education has reached her: she is enrolled, she is not dropping out, she receives a midday meal, she is counted in the system.

Hand her a Class 2 Hindi storybook and ask her to read aloud. According to the 2024 Annual Status of Education Report, she has about a one-in-two chance of doing so fluently. Give her a two-digit subtraction problem. A similar probability applies.

This is the central empirical fact of Indian education today. The access problem — how do we get children into schools — has been substantially solved. The learning problem — what happens once they are there — has not.

It is important to register that the access achievement is not small. Dropout rates at the secondary level have fallen from ~17% in 2012 to under 10% today. Girls’ enrolment has caught up and exceeded boys at every level below higher secondary. The mid-day-meal scheme reaches ~12 crore children. Samagra Shiksha has consolidated three earlier schemes. PM Shri has begun upgrading ~14,500 schools as model institutions.

Himachal Pradesh
69.5%
Kerala
66.2%
Maharashtra
56.1%
All-India
50.4%
Madhya Pradesh
48.5%
Rajasthan
48.1%
Karnataka
47.2%
Bihar
42.3%
Uttar Pradesh
39.7%
Jharkhand
38.9%

Percentage of Class 5 children in government schools who can read a Class 2-level text fluently. Source: ASER 2024 (released January 2025). Figures are from a volunteer-administered, nationally representative household survey; ASER methodology is well-documented but inherently carries a survey range. Kerala and HP consistently outperform; Bihar and UP consistently lag.

Global context

India spends around 2.9% of GDP on public education. For comparison: Brazil ~6%, South Korea ~5.1%, Vietnam ~4.2%, OECD average ~5.2%, US ~5.4%. The 1966 Kothari Commission recommended 6%. India has missed that target for six decades.

The Vietnam example is particularly instructive: Vietnam spends ~4.2% of GDP on education at roughly a tenth of India’s per-capita income, yet consistently outperforms middle-income peers on the PISA international assessments. The lesson: spending isn’t destiny, but under-spending makes the structural problem harder.

What has been doneThe structural decade

The architecture, rebuilt.

The policy machinery for Indian education has undergone more structural change in the past 6 years than in the preceding 60. NEP 2020 reoriented the framework. NIPUN Bharat made foundational learning the stated first priority. Samagra Shiksha consolidated scheme delivery. PM Shri created a model-school network. The vocationalisation of the curriculum has begun. Enrolment has stayed near-universal. The challenge now is converting architecture to outcomes.

2009
Right to Education Act comes into force — Article 21A’s promise of free and compulsory education for 6-14 becomes a justiciable right.
2013-2018
Enrolment ratios climb steadily as RTE implementation matures. Dropout rates at secondary level begin a durable decline.
2018
First National Achievement Survey (NAS) in the post-NCF framework provides the first systematic national learning-outcomes benchmark beyond ASER’s volunteer survey.
2020
National Education Policy 2020 launched — the first comprehensive education policy in 34 years. Frames foundational literacy and numeracy as the first national priority.
2021
NIPUN Bharat launched with a target of universal Foundational Literacy and Numeracy (FLN) by end of Class 3 by 2026-27. State-level implementation begins.
2022
Samagra Shiksha consolidated scheme takes over; three earlier schemes merged. Over ₹37,000 crore annual outlay.
2023
PM Shri announced — roughly 14,500 schools across India to be upgraded as model institutions showcasing NEP 2020 implementation.
2024
NEP vocationalisation begins scaled rollout. Grade 6 onward students exposed to vocational subjects. Higher-education credit framework operational.
2025
ASER 2024 data: enrolment near-universal; foundational learning shows the largest improvement in 20 years. Class 3 children able to read at Class 2 level rose from 16.3% (2022) to 23.4% (2024). NIPUN Bharat is the most-cited reason.
“India has solved the access problem. The learning problem is harder, and it is the one our next decade has to solve. The tools — NEP, NIPUN Bharat, FLN focus — are the most serious we have had. Execution at scale is the variable.”
Rukmini Banerji, CEO, Pratham Education Foundation
ASER 2024 field report
04 · The gapFour numbers

Enrolment vs learning.

~98%
Enrolment of children 6-14 in school. Near-universal — a durable achievement of the past decade.
ASER 2024
~50%
Class 5 students who can read a Class 2 text fluently (ASER 2024). Roughly the same indicator at Class 3 rose from 16.3% (2022) to 23.4% (2024) — the largest 2-year jump in two decades, credited to NIPUN Bharat. The honest measure of progress and gap.
ASER 2024
~2.9%of GDP
India’s public education spending — still below the 1966 Kothari Commission recommendation of 6%. A benchmark missed for six decades.
Economic Survey 2024-25
~14,500schools
Being upgraded under PM Shri as model institutions showcasing NEP 2020 implementation. The network is meant to demonstrate what systemic implementation of the new policy looks like.
Ministry of Education, 2024
What worksFour cases

Four models.

Vietnam · 2000s-present

The PISA over-performer

Vietnam’s PISA performance is the most-cited developing-country education story. Despite per-capita income roughly a tenth of developed economies, Vietnamese 15-year-olds score comparably to OECD averages in mathematics and reading. The ingredients: disciplined teacher training, intensive focus on foundational skills, and centralised curriculum quality with local implementation. India’s NEP 2020 draws from similar principles.

India · Pratham

The Teaching at the Right Level model

Pratham Education Foundation’s Teaching at the Right Level (TaRL) methodology — grouping children by learning level rather than age/grade — has been rigorously evaluated by J-PAL and others. TaRL interventions produce learning gains equivalent to roughly 60-100% of a grade level in 3-6 months. Scaled across multiple Indian states through government partnerships; adapted in Zambia, Cote d’Ivoire, and elsewhere.

Finland · 1970s-present

Teacher professionalisation

Finland’s education outcomes are built on a structural commitment: every teacher holds a master’s degree, teaching is a prestigious profession with strong pay and autonomy, and curricula are locally adapted within national frameworks. The lesson: no education system exceeds the quality of its teachers. India’s challenge is more scale than Finland faces, but the principle holds.

India · Kerala model

Universal foundational achievement

Kerala’s Class 5 reading fluency at 66%, well above the national 50%, reflects decades of sustained investment in primary education, female literacy, and accountability in government schools. The model is neither fast to replicate nor a matter of a single policy — it is a multi-generational commitment to basic education being the state’s first priority.

What would workSix structural levers

Six things that would close the gap.

01
Invest in the first three years
The child who leaves Class 3 reading has a 90%+ probability of completing secondary school. The child who doesn’t, doesn’t. FLN is the single highest-leverage investment in Indian education. NIPUN Bharat is the right framework; funding discipline and teacher training at scale are the execution variables.
02
Reduce teacher administrative load
Primary school teachers spend roughly 20-30% of their time on non-teaching tasks — MDM coordination, census duty, election duty, forms. Systematic relief here would improve instruction more than any curriculum change.
03
Fund education toward 6% of GDP
The 6% of GDP target is six decades old. Moving meaningfully toward it is a fiscal choice. The 2025-26 Budget began a mild tilt; the glide path over the next 3-5 budgets is what matters.
04
Treat vernacular publishing as infrastructure
India’s foundational reading deficit partly reflects the thinness of age-appropriate vernacular books. Pratham, NBT, state textbook boards, and private publishers have made progress; the scale-up should be a policy priority.
05
Measure, publish, and iterate
ASER is one NGO’s work. The National Achievement Survey is the government equivalent. Both should be quarterly, public, district-level, and acted upon. Andhra Pradesh’s Learning Outcomes Dashboard (2022) is the operational model.
06
Invest in teacher capacity, not just pay
Teacher appointments have scaled; continuous professional development has lagged. The NISHTHA programme (for 42 lakh teachers) is the scaffolding. Linking teacher-PD quality to actual classroom outcomes — through systems like the Delhi Teachers’ University — is the next phase.
“The destiny of India is now being shaped in her classrooms. If we are to secure for our nation a future as rich as her past, we must spend on education, not as a favour, but as an investment.”
Kothari Commission
Report of the Education Commission, 1966 — recommended 6% of GDP on education
On the numbers

India’s education data comes from multiple sources with slightly different methodologies: UDISE+ (administrative data, universal coverage), ASER (household survey, volunteer-administered), National Achievement Survey (sample assessment). Each has strengths and gaps.

ASER 2024, the most recent systematic household-based learning-outcomes dataset. Enrolment figures from UDISE+ are near-complete; learning-outcome figures are survey-based and carry inherent sampling uncertainty.

The delayed Census (last comprehensive in 2011) affects some extrapolations of school-age population totals. Treat specific figures as directional indicators of the pattern rather than point estimates.

Sources & further reading

Primary data: ASER Centre (Pratham); AISHE — All India Survey on Higher Education; UDISE+ data; NCERT National Achievement Survey; Economic Survey 2024-25 education chapter.

Research: Rukmini Banerji (Pratham); Karthik Muralidharan (UC San Diego); Wilima Wadhwa (ASER); Abhijit Banerjee and Esther Duflo on remedial learning (J-PAL).

Policy: Ministry of Education; NEP 2020; NIPUN Bharat guidelines; Samagra Shiksha framework; PM Shri scheme documentation.

Part 05Services · Human welfare

Sick, and
paying for it.

Out-of-pocket health spending in India has fallen from 64% to around 39% of total health expenditure in roughly a decade. This is among the sharpest improvements in any emerging economy, anywhere, in recent decades. Around 55 crore Indians are covered under PM-JAY — the world’s largest government-funded health insurance programme. Roughly 1.7 lakh Ayushman Arogya Mandirs are operational. Over 14,000 Jan Aushadhi stores offer generic medicines at a fraction of branded prices. The scaffolding has changed. The gaps remain significant.

For most of Indian history, catastrophic illness in a poor household meant economic ruin. Estimates from the 2000s suggested 5-6 crore Indians were pushed below the poverty line each year by medical expenses alone. This was not a rare outcome; it was the baseline condition of the Indian health system.

That baseline has been shifting, and at pace. Out-of-pocket expenditure (OOPE), the share of health spending that households bear directly, has fallen from ~64% in 2013-14 to around 39% in 2021-22. Fewer Indians today fall into poverty from a single hospital admission than at any point since independence.

Several programmes have contributed simultaneously. Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana (PM-JAY), launched 2018, provides cashless in-patient cover up to ₹5 lakh per family per year to around 55 crore Indians — the world’s largest government-funded health insurance scheme. Ayushman Arogya Mandirs (formerly Health & Wellness Centres), of which over 1.7 lakh are now operational, have expanded primary care well beyond the historical reach of the public system. Jan Aushadhi stores — around 14,000 of them now — offer generic medicines at a fraction of branded prices. None of these eliminates the Indian health challenge; all of them meaningfully narrow it.

2013-14
64.2%
2015-16
60.6%
2017-18
55.1%
2018-19
48.2%
2019-20
47.1%
2020-21
44.4%
2021-22
39.4%

Out-of-pocket expenditure as % of total health expenditure, India. Source: National Health Accounts (NHA) estimates, Ministry of Health & Family Welfare. The 2021-22 round was released September 2024. The drop from 64.2% to 39.4% is one of the steepest documented improvements in Indian health economics in the independence era.

Global context

Out-of-pocket health spending as % of total health expenditure: Thailand ~12%, United Kingdom ~13%, Indonesia ~30%, China ~35%, India ~39%, Bangladesh ~69%, Pakistan ~55%. India has closed most of the gap with middle-income peers and is now broadly in China’s range.

The peer example Indian policymakers watch is Thailand’s 2001 Universal Coverage Scheme, which drove OOPE from ~34% to ~11% in a decade. The Thai model combines tax-financed universal coverage with a fixed capitation payment to providers, no co-payments, and tight cost controls. PM-JAY shares some features and differs in others (eligibility, financing mix). The trajectory is possible.

What has been builtThe universal-coverage decade

Architecture, assembled.

Over the past decade, India has built the scaffolding of a universal-coverage health system. PM-JAY for catastrophic care. Ayushman Arogya Mandirs for primary care. Jan Aushadhi for affordable medicine. Ayushman Bharat Digital Mission for records. The mix is imperfect, varies by state, and leaves real gaps — but it is meaningfully different from what existed in 2012.

2005
National Rural Health Mission launched — the structural foundation of public primary care in rural India, later integrated into the National Health Mission.
2013
OOPE peaks at ~64% — roughly two-thirds of every rupee spent on health is borne directly by households.
2017
National Health Policy 2017 sets the target of government health spending reaching 2.5% of GDP. Recommits to key coverage indicators.
2018
Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana (PM-JAY) launched — flagship government-funded insurance, coverage up to ₹5 lakh per family per year. The largest such programme globally by beneficiary count.
2018
Ayushman Bharat Health & Wellness Centres (now Ayushman Arogya Mandirs) begin rollout as the primary-care backbone of the AB programme.
2020
Covid-19 exposes both fragility and resilience: high case load, but CoWIN and the indigenous vaccine ecosystem deliver at unprecedented scale. Over 220 crore doses administered by 2022.
2021
Ayushman Bharat Digital Mission launched — the digital rails for a longitudinal health records system. Has the potential to be India’s next DPI success story; governance is the open question.
2023
Jan Aushadhi pharmacy network crosses 11,000 stores; expansion target of 25,000 by end-decade.
2024-25
OOPE at ~39% per the most recent NHA release (Sept 2024). Ayushman Arogya Mandirs cross 1.7 lakh. PM-JAY coverage extended to ~55 crore including state convergence. October 2024: Vay Vandana card extends PM-JAY to all citizens aged 70+ regardless of income, with an additional ₹5 lakh top-up cover. Total Ayushman cards issued cross 43.5 crore; ~36,200 hospitals empanelled; 86 crore ABHA digital health IDs created.
“A fall in out-of-pocket expenditure from 64 to 39 per cent in a decade is the single most important structural improvement in Indian public health since independence. It is not a finished story — but it is the most important chapter of it we have written.”
Dr K. Srinath Reddy, former President, Public Health Foundation of India
On the NHA 2021-22 data
05 · ProgressFour numbers

The improvement, quantified.

~39%OOPE
Out-of-pocket spending as % of total health expenditure — down from 64% a decade ago. Fewer Indians fall into poverty from a single hospital admission than at any point in independent India’s history.
National Health Accounts 2021-22
~55 crcovered
Indians covered under Ayushman Bharat PM-JAY (and state-scheme convergence pushes the total beyond 70 crore). 43.5 crore Ayushman cards issued; ~36,200 hospitals empanelled. The Vay Vandana card (2024) extends PM-JAY to all seniors aged 70+, regardless of income.
Ministry of Health & Family Welfare, 2024
~1.7 lakhcentres
Ayushman Arogya Mandirs operational — primary-health centres expanded well beyond the historical reach of the rural health system.
National Health Mission, 2024
~1.8%of GDP
Government health expenditure — still below the NHP 2017 target of 2.5%. The next decade has to close this gap.
Economic Survey 2024-25
What worksFour cases

Four models.

Thailand · 2001-present

Universal coverage done well

Thailand’s 2001 Universal Coverage Scheme drove OOPE from ~34% to ~11% in a decade. Tax-financed, zero co-payments, fixed capitation to providers, tight cost controls. Thailand achieved universal coverage at ~3.8% of GDP on health — an efficiency India should be studying closely.

Rwanda · 1999-present

Community-based health insurance at scale

Rwanda’s Mutuelles de Santé community-based insurance now covers ~90% of the population. Under-five mortality has fallen from ~220 per 1,000 in 1995 to ~40 in 2022. A small country, but an instructive case in coverage-expansion under resource constraints.

India · Covid response

CoWIN and the vaccine build-out

India administered over 220 crore Covid vaccine doses by 2022 — the fastest and largest vaccination campaign in human history. CoWIN has since been offered as DPI to other countries. The case demonstrates that the Indian state can execute at extraordinary scale when the political and financial commitment align.

India · Tamil Nadu model

Public health infrastructure as state priority

Tamil Nadu has for decades invested more per capita in public health than most Indian states. Result: infant mortality rate ~14 per 1,000 vs national average ~32; institutional delivery rate ~99%; OOPE below national average. Kerala’s story is similar. The conclusion: sustained state-level commitment compounds.

What would workSix levers

Six things that would complete the transition.

01
Raise government health spending toward 2.5% GDP
The National Health Policy 2017 target. Glide path has been slow; moving from ~1.8% to 2.5% over 5-7 budgets would compound the improvements already made. Every 0.1 percentage point is roughly ₹30,000 crore in additional capacity.
02
Fund public primary care at scale
Ayushman Arogya Mandirs have expanded access — the next question is staffing, medicine supply, and referral pathways. Filling these gaps is cheaper than any additional hospital build.
03
Solve the doctor-distribution problem
India produces ~1.3 lakh MBBS graduates a year. Supply isn’t the binding constraint. Rural posting incentives, structured DNB/fellowship programmes, and telemedicine integration are where the system still under-performs.
04
Scale Ayushman Bharat Digital Mission, carefully
ABDM is the potential next DPI success. Privacy architecture, inclusion safeguards, and interoperability standards are the governance questions that will determine whether it lands well. Data protection under the DPDP Act is the legal hinge.
05
Address NCDs and mental health explicitly
Non-communicable diseases (cardiovascular, diabetes, cancer, chronic respiratory) now drive ~60% of India’s disease burden. Mental health, despite improved recognition, remains dramatically under-resourced. Both need explicit budget lines beyond current allocations.
06
Strengthen state-level public health systems
Tamil Nadu and Kerala have demonstrated what sustained state-level investment produces. The 16th Finance Commission can create a structured incentive for state health-spending convergence. Delhi, Punjab, Gujarat have strong hospital networks but weaker primary care; Bihar, UP have the largest absolute gap.
“The Indian state has done in a decade for health what most developing economies struggle to do in three. PM-JAY, Arogya Mandirs, Jan Aushadhi, ABDM — put together, they are the most substantial architecture of universal coverage the country has ever had. Closing the implementation gaps is the unfinished work.”
Dr Girdhar Gyani, Association of Healthcare Providers India
On India’s universal coverage architecture, 2024
On the numbers

India’s health-expenditure data comes from the National Health Accounts (NHA), produced by the National Health Systems Resource Centre. The 2021-22 round was released September 2024 and is the most recent comprehensive estimate. Previous rounds use comparable but not identical methodology.

PM-JAY beneficiary counts include state scheme convergence and vary across sources; the figure of ~55 crore covers the core AB-PMJAY programme with an additional coverage layer from state-level schemes.

The most recent Census is 2011; household-level estimates of health-expenditure burden rely on NSSO rounds and NFHS, each with their own sampling frame. Treat all such figures as directional.

Sources & further reading

Primary data: National Health Accounts 2021-22; NFHS-5 (2019-21); National Health Authority (PM-JAY dashboard); Ayushman Bharat Digital Mission portal.

Research: Public Health Foundation of India; K. Srinath Reddy’s health systems analyses; Lancet Countdown India; Observer Research Foundation health team.

Global reference: WHO Global Health Expenditure Database; Thailand Universal Coverage Scheme evaluations; Rwanda Ministry of Health reports.

Part 06Environment · Climate

The heat
is on.

2024 was India’s hottest year since records began in 1901. 554 heatwave station-days — more than double the previous decade’s peak. Over 40,000 heatstroke cases in the summer alone. And yet: India was the first country in South Asia to build a Heat Action Plan, in Ahmedabad in 2013. The template has since been adopted by 140+ Indian cities and studied by China, Pakistan, and the UAE. The climate frontline has arrived. The response has begun.

Phalodi, Rajasthan, 26 May 2024. The mercury hits 50.5°C. Across May and June that year, much of North India runs above 45°C for days on end. Construction workers collapse. Electoral workers die on polling duty. Delhi registers its highest-ever night-time temperature: 35.2°C at 3 am.

2024 was, officially, India’s hottest year since the India Meteorological Department began keeping records in 1901. Nine of India’s ten warmest years on record have fallen in the past fifteen.

What is different about heat, as a climate story, is that it is immediate. Air pollution’s toll is modelled. Groundwater depletion is slow. Heat is the child who cannot concentrate in an unventilated classroom; the vegetable vendor whose stock perishes by noon; the delivery worker whose phone screen shuts off.

India’s response has been unusually pioneering for a developing economy. Ahmedabad’s 2013 Heat Action Plan was the first in South Asia; a 2018 Lancet Planetary Health study found it averted over 1,100 deaths annually. The template has since been adopted by 140+ Indian cities. In 2024, the Ministry of Home Affairs formally notified heatwaves as a disaster under the State Disaster Mitigation Fund, unlocking structural funding. Kerala in 2025 became the first state to mandate binding work-hour restrictions during heatwave days.

2015
130days
2017
155days
2019
320days
2022
203days
2023
195days
2024
554days

Heatwave station-days per year, IMD data. Source: IMD Annual Climate Summaries 2015-2024. A single station recording 10 heatwave days counts as 10 station-days. The 2024 figure is more than 2× any previous year on record.

Global context

India sits among the world’s most heat-exposed large economies. Per-capita heat exposure is comparable to the Gulf and parts of the Sahel, but at a population scale none of those regions approach. Roughly a quarter of global heatwave-related deaths since 1990 are estimated to have occurred in India (figures vary across studies).

The comparison frame is not the US or Europe. It is Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Egypt. Among these, India’s Heat Action Plan framework has become the reference adapted by others. Miami, Athens, Phoenix, Santiago have appointed Chief Heat Officers; no Indian city has yet done so at that formal level.

What has been doneThe adaptation decade

Heat Action, institutionalised.

India’s response to heat has been one of the clearest examples of adaptive policy in a developing country. HAPs expanded from one city (2013) to 140+ by 2024. The formal notification of heatwaves as a disaster in 2024 was a structural shift that unlocks longer-term financing. Kerala’s 2025 occupational-heat rule is the first of its kind. None of this makes India heat-safe; all of it makes India measurably more heat-prepared than it was a decade ago.

2010
Ahmedabad heatwave; excess-mortality estimates of 800+ deaths push city administrators toward preventive planning.
2013
Ahmedabad Heat Action Plan launched — first in South Asia. Colour-coded alerts, training of health workers, public communication.
2016
NDMA publishes national Heat Wave Action Plan guidelines; encouragement to states to develop city/district plans.
2018
Lancet Planetary Health study estimates Ahmedabad HAP averts ~1,100 deaths annually.
2021
HAP coverage crosses 100 Indian cities. Templates available through NDMA, CPR, Mahila Housing SEWA Trust.
2023
Telangana Cool Roof Policy 2023-28 — first Indian state-level commitment to subsidised white-coating of rooftops.
2024
Heatwaves formally notified as a disaster under State Disaster Mitigation Fund by Ministry of Home Affairs. Unlocks structural spending on cooling, shelters, warning systems.
2024
IMD records India’s hottest year since 1901. CEEW Heat Risk Index shows ~57% of districts at high or very high heat risk.
2025
Kerala mandates binding work-hour restrictions on outdoor labour during heatwave days — first state-level formal occupational-heat protection.
“Heatwaves are no longer seasonal anomalies for India. They are a chronic, multiplying risk that affects every sector of the economy. The response infrastructure we have built in the last decade is among the most advanced in the developing world — and it still is not enough.”
Dr Arunabha Ghosh, CEO, CEEW
On the 2025 Heat Risk Index
06 · The tollFour numbers

The climate frontline, arrived.

554days
Heatwave station-days across India in 2024 — the highest since IMD records began. 2024 was India’s hottest year since 1901.
IMD Annual Climate Summary 2024
~730deaths
Recorded in 2024 from heatstroke by independent monitors. The government’s toll was ~460. Heat mortality is systematically undercounted; figures vary widely.
HeatWatch & IMD 2024
~57%districts
Of 734 districts classified at high or very high heat risk, per the CEEW 2025 Heat Risk Index.
CEEW Heat Risk Index 2025
140+cities
With formal Heat Action Plans based on the Ahmedabad template. An Indian adaptation model now studied internationally.
NDMA; CPR HAP audit
What worksFour cases

Four case studies.

India · Ahmedabad 2013

The first HAP in South Asia

Designed by the Indian Institute of Public Health with NRDC and the city administration. Colour-coded alerts, SMS warnings, training of ASHAs, cooling-centre maps, worker-hour protections. A 2018 Lancet Planetary Health evaluation estimated ~1,100 deaths averted annually. Adapted by 140+ Indian cities and studied by China, Pakistan, UAE.

Global · Chief Heat Officer

The accountability model

Miami (2021) appointed the world’s first Chief Heat Officer. Athens, Phoenix, Santiago, Dhaka followed. A single accountable official with budget and KPIs for city-wide heat resilience. No Indian city has yet appointed one at the same formal level; institutionalising this role would replace goodwill with structure.

India · Telangana 2023-28

Cool Roofs at scale

First Indian state-level subsidised cool-roof commitment. Cool roofs cost ₹50-100/m² and reduce indoor temperatures by 2-5°C. The policy targets 300 million square feet by 2028. Replication across other states would be among the cheapest public-health interventions available.

Europe · post-2003

Heat warning systems

After the 2003 European heatwave killed ~70,000 people, France, Spain, Germany, Italy built integrated heat-warning systems. European heat mortality has fallen markedly despite rising temperatures — an adaptation success. India’s HAP framework draws on the same architecture.

What would workSix levers

Six things that would save lives.

01
Count the dead honestly
The gap between official (~460) and independent (~730) heat-death counts in 2024 is not a rounding error. Better recording — tied to hospital admission data rather than post-hoc reclassification — builds the political pressure scale-up requires.
02
Appoint permanent city Heat Officers
Miami, Athens, Phoenix, Santiago have them. Indian cities need the same. A dedicated officer with budget and KPIs would institutionalise what currently depends on individual HAP coordinators’ goodwill.
03
Fund cool roofs at scale
₹50-100/m² for a 2-5°C indoor reduction. Telangana 2023-28 is the first state-level commitment. National replication would be among the cheapest public-health interventions available.
04
Protect outdoor workers
~75% of India’s workforce is exposed to heat at work. Kerala’s 2025 work-hour restrictions are the first formal occupational-heat protection. The model should extend nationally, with enforcement through labour inspectorates.
05
Integrate heat into urban planning
Tree cover, building orientation, water bodies, shading, ventilation corridors are health infrastructure, not decoration. Every urban master plan being approved in 2025-27 is a 30-year commitment. Heat resilience at that stage is cheaper than retrofitting.
06
Strengthen long-range seasonal forecasting
IMD’s 7-10 day heat warnings have improved substantially. Extended-range (3-4 week) forecasting — which IITM Pune is developing — would let cities, hospitals, and industry prepare at the planning horizon rather than the response horizon.
“India is warming, and warming fast. The Heat Action Plan has proved what focused government action at the city level can achieve. Its scale-up, and its institutionalisation into urban planning, is the adaptation agenda for the next decade.”
National Disaster Management Authority
Updated Heat Wave guidelines, 2024
On the numbers

India’s heat mortality is systematically undercounted. The government toll is based on state-level reporting; independent monitors use hospital admission data and media reports and arrive at higher figures. The real number is almost certainly higher than the official one.

Temperature and heatwave data from IMD use specific definitions that differ slightly from peer services abroad; comparisons across countries require care.

HAP counts include formal plans notified by city administrations; quality and implementation vary. The ~140+ figure is a count of plans, not necessarily of functioning ones.

Sources & further reading

Primary data: IMD Annual Climate Summary 2024; CEEW Heat Risk Index 2025; HeatWatch Struck by Heat Report 2024.

Research: Azhar et al, Lancet Planetary Health 2018 (Ahmedabad HAP); Center for Policy Research HAP audit (2023); Yale Program on Climate Change Communication.

Part 07Social · Workforce

Half the
workforce?

India’s female labour force participation rate rose from around 25% in 2019 to about 42% in 2023-24, the sharpest rise in the country’s post-Independence labour history. The story is real but partly methodological: PLFS now classifies women collecting firewood, fetching water, or working on family farms as participating in the labour force, which mechanically lifts the rural number. Most of the genuine improvement has been in rural self-employment; urban participation has barely moved. The Women’s Reservation Act passed in 2023 after 27 years of deferred debate. Measurable progress has been made. The gap with peer economies remains. Both are true.

India has 73 crore women. In 2019, about one in four of the working-age ones was in the labour force. In 2023-24, it was about two in five. Roughly 10 crore Indian women have entered or re-entered the labour force in a five-year window. That is the single largest shift in the composition of the Indian workforce since the 1970s.

The caveats are real. Much of the increase is concentrated in rural self-employment — own-account agricultural work, animal husbandry, home-based enterprises. Urban FLFPR has risen more modestly. The Indian woman who is visibly in the labour market — the female-headed household, the returning migrant, the gig worker, the shopfloor operator — remains underrepresented relative to Vietnam or Indonesia.

But the direction is clear. The 106th Constitutional Amendment was passed in 2023 and gazetted on 16 April 2026 (now in force) reserving one-third of Lok Sabha and state assembly seats for women, the first major structural reform after 27 years of attempts. Implementation is still tied to post-Census delimitation (targeted 2029 at earliest); the 131st Amendment to delink failed in Parliament on 17 April 2026. The reform is law; the implementation is the unresolved question.

Himachal Pradesh
64.8%
Sikkim
57.1%
Andhra Pradesh
52.3%
Telangana
48.9%
Karnataka
47.1%
Tamil Nadu
45.8%
All-India
41.7%
Kerala
40.6%
Maharashtra
38.2%
West Bengal
32.4%
Uttar Pradesh
31.8%
Delhi (NCT)
23.1%
Bihar
21.5%

Female Labour Force Participation Rate (15+), PLFS 2023-24. Note: Himachal Pradesh’s top ranking reflects a large share of rural women in family-owned agriculture. The pattern in Delhi and Bihar is low participation, not low work — Indian women work extensively; much of it is unpaid and unrecorded.

Global context

Female Labour Force Participation Rate: Rwanda ~85%, Vietnam ~70%, China ~61%, United States ~57%, Indonesia ~53%, Brazil ~53%, India ~42%, Bangladesh ~38%, Pakistan ~24%. India has closed the gap with Bangladesh; Vietnam and China remain the aspirational benchmarks.

The Vietnamese and Bangladeshi cases are the most structurally comparable. Both absorbed large rural female workforces into formal manufacturing (garments in Bangladesh; electronics, garments, agro-processing in Vietnam). India’s next FLFPR leg is likely to require the same pattern — and the PLI, National Manufacturing Mission, and textile-focus-product schemes are the policy instruments being prepared for it.

What has been doneThe workforce decade

Ten crore women, returning.

The Indian women’s-workforce story is the clearest case of rapid structural change in the past decade of labour-market data. From ~25% FLFPR in 2019 to ~42% in 2023-24. From ~6% of Lok Sabha MPs being women in 2004 to ~14% in 2024, with 33% reservation now legally required. From mandatory maternity leave of 12 weeks to 26. None of this makes India gender-equal; all of it makes India measurably more gender-inclusive than it was a decade ago.

2005
Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act. Over the following decade, becomes one of the largest female-employment programmes globally — women account for ~55% of workdays.
2013
Sexual Harassment of Women at Workplace Act. Creates Internal Complaints Committees framework.
2017
Maternity Benefit (Amendment) Act extends paid maternity leave from 12 to 26 weeks — among the longest mandated durations globally for the sectors covered.
2019
FLFPR bottoms out at around 25% — partly reflecting post-pandemic survey effects and the collapse of rural non-farm work during the early 2010s.
2021-23
Dramatic rise in FLFPR driven by rural self-employment recovery, distress-led participation post-pandemic, and structural policy expansion.
2022
Palna (National Crèche Scheme) revamped; Anganwadi-cum-Crèches begin expansion to 10,600 sanctioned units.
2023
Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam (106th Constitutional Amendment) — 33% reservation for women in Lok Sabha and state assemblies. First major structural reform after 27 years of attempts.
2023
Karnataka’s Shakti Yojana (free bus travel for women) launches. Correlates with a measurable rise in state-level FLFPR.
2023-24
FLFPR rises to ~42% per PLFS. Sharpest 5-year rise in independent India’s history.
2026
131st Amendment to delink Women’s Reservation from delimitation fails in Parliament on 17 April 2026. Implementation still awaits post-Census delimitation, 2029 at earliest.
“When women gain political power, public expenditure priorities shift — toward drinking water, roads, education. The data from the 73rd and 74th Amendment panchayat reservations is unambiguous. India’s 2023 Women’s Reservation, when implemented, will be the largest such intervention ever tested.”
Esther Duflo, Nobel laureate
On Indian panchayat reservations evaluations
07 · The shiftFour numbers

The missing half, returning.

~42%FLFPR
Female Labour Force Participation Rate, 2023-24 — up from ~25% in 2019. Roughly 10 crore women entered or re-entered the labour force in a 5-year window.
PLFS 2023-24
131of 148
India’s rank on the WEF Global Gender Gap Index 2025. Political-empowerment sub-index remains the drag; educational attainment and health have closed meaningfully.
WEF Global Gender Gap Report 2025
33%reserved
Women’s reservation in Lok Sabha and state assemblies, enacted 2023 (gazetted April 2026). First major structural reform after 27 years of attempts.
106th Amendment Act, 2023 / 2026
~7hours/day
Unpaid care work borne by Indian women, vs ~3 for men — one of the largest gender gaps among major economies. The care economy is economic infrastructure.
MoSPI Time Use Survey 2019
What worksFour cases

Four models.

Rwanda · 2003-present

The gender-quota maximalist

Rwanda is the only country where women hold the majority of parliamentary seats (~61%). Constitutional minimum quota is 30%; actual is much higher. Rwanda’s FLFPR is ~85%, the highest in the world.

Bangladesh · 1990s-present

Manufacturing-driven FLFPR

Bangladesh’s garment industry employs ~4 million women directly. FLFPR rose from ~10% in 1980 to ~38% today, primarily through formal manufacturing absorption. The lesson for India: labour-intensive manufacturing is the historic on-ramp for women’s workforce participation at scale.

India · Karnataka Shakti

Transport as labour infrastructure

Karnataka’s free state-bus-travel scheme for women (June 2023) correlates with a ~12 percentage-point rise in state FLFPR over the following year. Mobility, safety, and transit access are often the binding constraints on women’s workforce participation. Tamil Nadu, Delhi have parallel schemes.

India · MGNREGA / VB-G RAM G

Women’s workdays at scale

Women have historically accounted for ~55% of MGNREGA workdays nationally. For a significant share of rural women, this rural employment guarantee was their only direct monetary income. The largest formal-work channel for rural women in independent India’s history. Whether the late-2025 transition to VB-G RAM G (125 days, but Centre-State 60-40 funding) preserves this share is the open empirical question.

What would workSix levers

Six things that would close the gap.

01
Treat the care economy as economic infrastructure
Indian women spend ~7 hours/day on unpaid care vs ~3 for men. Anganwadi-cum-Crèche expansion (10,600+ sanctioned, ~1,250 operational) is the lever. Every crèche operational enables measurable increase in formal-sector participation.
02
Enforce POSH, seriously
The 2013 Act exists. Compliance — particularly ICC constitution — is patchy. Tying POSH compliance to stock-exchange listing disclosure and government-contract eligibility would shift corporate behaviour.
03
Accelerate Women’s Reservation implementation
The 33% quota has been law since 2023. Every year of delay past 2029 is a year of lost representation. Bringing implementation forward, and considering Rajya Sabha extension, would be the clearest next signal.
04
Mandate pay-gap transparency
UK-style pay-gap reporting reduces gaps by 2-4 percentage points within five years. India has no equivalent disclosure; adding it would be low-cost, high-signal.
05
Build safety as labour infrastructure
Shakti Yojana correlated with +12-point state FLFPR. Street lighting, reliable transit, functional CCTV, safety audits are unglamorous basics that work.
06
Invest in skilling for formal manufacturing
Bangladesh’s garment workforce, Vietnam’s electronics workforce: both built through sustained skilling for formal women’s employment. The PLI and National Manufacturing Mission architecture is the right moment to link labour-intensive manufacturing directly to women’s skilling and hiring targets.
“I measure the progress of a community by the degree of progress which women have achieved.”
Dr B.R. Ambedkar
Speaking in the Constituent Assembly, 1947
On the numbers

FLFPR is from PLFS, replacing older NSSO rounds. Methodology shifts mean precise comparisons with pre-2017 figures require care — but the directional trajectory (~25% in 2019 to ~42% in 2023-24) is robust. The PLFS 2023-24 round also reclassified women collecting firewood, fetching water, and working on family farms as participating in the labour force, which mechanically lifts the rural number; the urban figure has barely moved. Both are signal: women are doing more economic work, and urban formal-employment opportunities for women remain stubborn.

India’s sex ratio at birth, per NFHS-5 (2019-21), is 929 females per 1,000 males — an improvement from 919 in NFHS-4, but still well below the natural figure of around 952. Son preference is weaker than it was a generation ago; it has not been eliminated. Northern states (Haryana, Punjab) continue to lag the southern (Kerala, Tamil Nadu) by margins that have proved durable across surveys.

Much of the recent FLFPR rise is in rural self-employment. Urban FLFPR has risen more modestly. Informal work is harder to measure; treat specific state-level figures as directional.

The most recent Census is 2011; population totals extrapolate from that baseline.

Sources & further reading

Primary data: PLFS 2023-24 (MoSPI); WEF Global Gender Gap Report 2025; MoSPI Time Use Survey 2019; NCRB Crime in India 2022.

Research: Ashwini Deshpande (Ashoka); IWWAGE; Esther Duflo on panchayat reservations; Rohini Pande on representation.

Part 08Livelihood · Rural economy

The farm
question.

Indian agriculture sustains roughly 45% of the workforce and produces 18% of the GDP. The gap between who works in agriculture and what agriculture pays is the deepest structural fault line in the economy. The past decade has brought record foodgrain production (357.7 MT in FY25), direct income transfer at scale (PM-Kisan has disbursed over ₹4.27 lakh crore across 22 instalments to 11 crore+ farmer families; the AgriStack Farmer ID rollout is the next-generation infrastructure), 10,000+ Farmer Producer Organisations, and quadrupled MSP procurement. The scaffolding is more serious than ever. The underlying structural question persists.

The Indian farmer exists in the political imagination as a single figure: a small landholder, at the mercy of the monsoon. The reality is more varied. The Indian farmer is also a tenant cultivator invisible to most government schemes; a landless labourer whose household runs on MGNREGA wages; a member of a Farmer Producer Organisation negotiating contract supply; a drip adopter who exits paddy for horticulture.

The Agricultural Census of 2015-16, the most recent complete count, recorded 146 million operational holdings at an average size of 1.08 hectares. The 2021-22 Census has been delayed; 2015-16 remains the baseline most current analysis extrapolates from. About 86% of operational holdings are under 2 hectares.

Marginal (<1 ha)
68%
Small (1-2 ha)
18%
Semi-medium (2-4 ha)
9.3%
Medium (4-10 ha)
3.9%
Large (>10 ha)
0.8%

Share of operational holdings by size class. Source: Agricultural Census 2015-16 (latest available). Fragmentation through inheritance has compressed holdings to a point where modern investment — tubewells, tractors, cold chains — is economically unviable for most single operators.

Global context

India’s agricultural sector employs ~45% of the workforce but produces ~18% of GDP. In peer economies the gap is narrower: China (~22% workforce, ~8% GDP), Brazil (~8%, ~7%), Vietnam (~30%, ~12%), US (~1%, ~1%). The transition China, Vietnam, and earlier Japan managed — moving rural labour into formal manufacturing — is the structural shift India is still completing.

What has been builtThe farmer-welfare decade

Serious scaffolding, assembled.

The policy machinery for Indian agriculture has expanded dramatically over the past decade. Not all of it has worked well. Some of it has worked far better than anticipated. All of it combined represents the largest farmer-welfare architecture independent India has assembled.

2004-05
NCFR / M.S. Swaminathan Commission recommendations lay the intellectual groundwork for subsequent farmer-welfare policy.
2014-18
MSP announced for 22 notified crops; procurement primarily anchored on rice and wheat. Warehouse-receipt system begins scaling under WDRA.
2016
PMFBY (Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana) launched — the largest crop insurance programme globally. Claims of over ₹1.8 lakh crore paid since inception.
2018
Agri-Infrastructure Fund announced later in 2020 — ₹1 lakh crore toward cold chains, warehouses, processing units. Lakhs of projects sanctioned since.
2019
PM-Kisan launched: ₹6,000/year direct to ~11 crore farmers. Over ₹3.9 lakh crore disbursed by 2025.
2020
10,000 FPO scheme announced — target achieved by 2024. Early evaluations suggest 15-25% income uplift for members.
2022
Crop diversification pilots: pulses and oilseeds procurement expands; millets receive renewed focus with 2023 declared International Year of Millets.
FY25
Record foodgrain production at 357.7 million tonnes — an 8% YoY jump and over 100 MT above 2015-16. Rice ~150 MT, wheat ~118 MT. India remains the world’s largest milk producer and second-largest rice and wheat producer.
2024-25
MSP coverage reaches ~1.84 crore farmers (from ~1.63 crore in 2021-22); total MSP outlay ~₹3.33 lakh crore. eNAM covers over 1,300 mandis.
“The past decade has built the most serious farmer-welfare architecture India has ever had. PM-Kisan, FPOs, crop insurance, e-NAM, warehouse receipts. The structural question — moving labour out of agriculture faster than it is being accumulated there — is the one the next decade still has to answer.”
Ashok Gulati, ICRIER
On Indian agricultural policy, 2024
08 · The arithmeticFour numbers

The rural arithmetic.

~86%
Of Indian farms are small or marginal — under 2 hectares. Average holding ~0.6 hectares and shrinking through inheritance fragmentation.
Agricultural Census 2015-16
~₹10,200/mo
Average income of an agricultural household. Over half of this is non-farm income — wages, animal husbandry, casual work. Farming alone doesn’t support most farming households.
NSSO Situation Assessment 2019
~10,000FPOs
Farmer Producer Organisations formed under the Centre’s scheme launched 2020 — target reached. Early evaluations suggest 15-25% income uplift for members.
SFAC / NABARD 2024
~358 Mtonnes
Record foodgrain production in FY 2024-25 (rice ~150 MT, wheat ~118 MT) — an 8% jump on the previous year and over 100 MT above 2015-16. India is the world’s largest milk producer, 2nd-largest rice and wheat producer. The production story, often missed in the distress narrative, is genuinely strong.
Ministry of Agriculture, FY25 Final Estimates
What worksFour cases

Four models.

Netherlands · post-1970

High-intensity, high-value agriculture

The Netherlands produces roughly $100 billion of agricultural exports annually from a country smaller than Tamil Nadu, through glasshouse horticulture, intensive dairy, and value-added food processing. The lesson: agricultural prosperity is about value-add, not land area. Indian horticulture (already 350+ million tonnes annually) is the closest structural parallel.

Israel · 1965-present

Drip and water productivity

Israel’s Netafim-pioneered drip irrigation uses 30-50% less water than flood irrigation. Israeli agricultural water productivity is roughly 3× India’s. India’s drip adoption has grown but remains under 10% of irrigated area. The biggest-lever intervention available, given the water chapter.

India · Anand model

Dairy cooperatives at scale

Operation Flood (1970-96) took India from milk-scarce to the world’s largest milk producer through Amul-style cooperative architecture. The FPO model for agriculture is the direct descendent of this blueprint. The institutional technology exists; replicating the Amul trajectory in other commodities is the challenge.

China · 1980s-present

Township-village enterprises

China moved roughly 200 million people out of agriculture in 30 years, largely through rural non-farm enterprises co-located with agriculture. The lesson: the farm problem is often solved not on the farm but at its edge — in food processing, logistics, agri-services. India’s Agriculture Infrastructure Fund targets the same layer.

What would workSix levers

Six things that would work.

01
Diversify MSP beyond rice and wheat
About 75% of MSP spending goes to paddy and wheat, locking Punjab-Haryana-western UP into water-intensive monoculture. Effective MSP with procurement for pulses, oilseeds, and millets is the single most consequential diversification lever. The Millets Mission 2023 and the pulses procurement scale-up in Budget 2025-26 are the early signals.
02
Recognise tenants and the landless
PM-Kisan conditions on land records; tenant farmers and landless labourers are partially excluded. Andhra Pradesh’s Licensed Cultivators model and Odisha’s KALIA (which includes landless labourers at ~₹12,500/year) are the working templates. National extension would bring the most precarious population into the policy net.
03
Invest in post-harvest infrastructure
India loses ~10-15% of total food production post-harvest. Agriculture Infrastructure Fund projects have begun closing this gap; scale matters. Warehouse-receipt financing and cold-chain subsidies for FPO-owned infrastructure would multiply impact.
04
Fund agricultural R&D at peer-country levels
India spends ~0.37% of agricultural GDP on R&D. China spends ~0.6%; Brazil above 1.5%. Climate-resilient seeds, water-efficient crops, and precision-agriculture platforms are the infrastructure of the next farm economy.
05
Scale FPOs beyond the initial 10,000
The 10,000 FPO target has been met. The next phase is viability: access to working capital, market linkages, and commercial partnerships. SFAC, NABARD, and NCDC scaling of equity capital and operational support is the implementation test.
06
Build an exit ramp, not a moat
The most important agricultural policy is, paradoxically, a non-agricultural policy. Labour-intensive manufacturing, urban housing, reliable non-farm employment. Rural distress ends when rural labour has credible alternatives. This is why Chapter 03 (Jobs) and Chapter 15 (Growth) are the other sides of the farm-question coin.
“You cannot solve the farmer problem by looking only at farms. The farm crisis is also a non-farm crisis. It is about what happens when the labour you don’t need in the fields has nowhere else to go.”
P. Sainath
People’s Archive of Rural India
On the numbers

Agricultural data in India comes from multiple sources: the Agricultural Census (2015-16 is the most recent complete round; 2021-22 is delayed), NSSO Situation Assessment Surveys (2019 is most recent), Ministry of Agriculture administrative data, and NCRB for accidental deaths/suicides. Different sources produce slightly different figures.

The farmer-household-income figure of ~₹10,200/month (NSSO 2019) is the most recent authoritative household-level estimate. Cost of cultivation and net income vary dramatically by state, crop, and tenure status.

NCRB farmer-suicide data has been contested on methodology; the figure has been broadly stable at ~11,000 farmer and farm-labourer suicides per year for two decades. Treat all such figures as directional.

Sources & further reading

Primary data: Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers’ Welfare; NSSO 77th Round (2019); Agricultural Census 2015-16; NCRB Accidental Deaths & Suicides 2022.

Research: Ashok Gulati (ICRIER); Himanshu (JNU); P. Sainath; People’s Archive of Rural India; PRS Legislative Research; Mekhala Krishnamurthy on agricultural markets.

Global reference: Netherlands Ministry of Agriculture; Netafim / Israel Ministry of Agriculture; World Bank agricultural productivity reports.

Part 09Services · Urban future

The city is the
future.

Around 600 million Indians will live in cities by 2036, roughly 40% of the population by official definition, up from 31% in 2011. The official figure understates the truth: India’s administrative definition of “urban” (75%+ male non-farm workforce, 5,000+ population, 400/sq km density) excludes much of the country’s densely-populated peri-urban belt; satellite-and-density studies suggest the genuinely-urban share already approaches 50%. Cities generate about 67% of GDP now and are projected to produce 70% by 2036. Over the past decade, urban budget allocations have risen sharply — a 17% year-on-year jump in the 2025-26 Union Budget alone. AMRUT, Smart Cities Mission, Jal Jeevan Mission (Urban), Swachh Bharat Urban, and PM-AWAS Urban have materially changed what cities deliver. The scale of the task ahead remains vast.

The twenty-first-century Indian story is, increasingly, an urban one. The growth story, the jobs story, the climate story, the middle-class story — all of it concentrates in cities. And yet India’s cities, in both physical and political terms, have long been the orphans of the Constitution. The 74th Constitutional Amendment Act of 1992 was meant to empower urban local bodies with 18 specific functions; three decades on, implementation remains uneven.

What has changed in the past decade is the structural seriousness of the Centre’s urban engagement. Smart Cities Mission. AMRUT I and II. Jal Jeevan Mission Urban. Swachh Bharat Urban. PM-AWAS Urban. PM e-Bus Sewa. National Infrastructure Pipeline’s urban component. The Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs’ allocation in the 2025-26 Budget rose ~17% year-on-year to around ₹96,800 crore. Urban, in policy terms, is no longer an afterthought of state-level politics.

1951
17.3%
1971
19.9%
1991
25.7%
2001
27.8%
2011
31.2%
~2024
36.4%
2036 proj.
40%

India’s urban population share over time, by official Census definition. Source: Census 1951-2011; World Bank and NSO estimates for 2024 and 2036 projections. Two important caveats: the 2021 Census has been indefinitely delayed and 2024 estimates are from sample surveys and projections; and India’s administrative definition of urban is narrower than spatial-density definitions used elsewhere, suggesting the actual urban share already approaches 50%.

The other big number you should know

India’s Total Fertility Rate fell to 2.0 in 2024 — below the replacement level of 2.1. Urban TFR is around 1.6; the South and West are well below replacement; only Bihar (~3.0), Meghalaya (~2.9), Uttar Pradesh (~2.4), and a few others remain above. India is projected to peak around 2060 and then begin a slow demographic decline. The implications for school capacity, urban planning, the labour market, the care economy, and old-age support are all built into the next 15 years of policy choices, even if they are barely visible yet in public debate. The country urbanising fastest is also the one ageing fastest.

Global context

Municipal own-revenue per capita (approximate USD equivalent): Mumbai $540, Delhi MCD $380, average Indian ULB $98, vs Singapore $7,800, Shanghai $8,900, New York $14,200, Jakarta $1,600, Bangkok $1,400. The gap is not population or wealth alone — it is legal authority, property tax bases, and fiscal devolution.

Property tax as % of GDP: India ~0.15%, OECD average ~1.1%, low-income countries average ~0.3%, middle-income ~0.5-0.6%. India collects property tax at a fraction of peer rates. The 16th Finance Commission has an opportunity to change this.

What has been builtThe urban decade

Urban, reclaimed.

The past decade’s urban missions represent the most concerted Centre-led urban programme in independent India’s history. Smart Cities. AMRUT I and II. Jal Jeevan Mission Urban. Swachh Bharat Urban. PM-AWAS Urban. Each has had uneven execution. Taken together, they have fundamentally altered the physical fabric of many Indian cities and the policy expectation of what cities can deliver.

1992
74th Constitutional Amendment Act — urban local bodies recognised as third tier of government. 18 functions to be devolved to ULBs. Implementation varies by state, three decades on.
2005-14
Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission (JNNURM) — first major central urban infrastructure programme. Mixed results; foundational lessons.
2015
Smart Cities Mission launched — 100 cities selected for area-based and pan-city interventions. Total sanctioned outlay ~₹2 lakh crore.
2015
AMRUT (Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation) launched — focus on water supply, sewerage, stormwater drains, urban transport.
2015
Swachh Bharat Urban launched — decade-long campaign for open-defecation-free cities and solid-waste management. Transforms urban sanitation over a decade.
2015
PM-AWAS Urban launched — housing for urban poor. Over 1 crore houses sanctioned by 2024.
2021
AMRUT 2.0 launched with focus on water security, circular economy, city climate action plans.
2022
PM e-Bus Sewa launched — 10,000 electric buses for 169 cities. Transforms urban public transport.
2024
16th Finance Commission constituted with urban fiscal architecture as explicit terms of reference — an opportunity to fix the municipal revenue gap.
2025-26
MoHUA budget rises ~17% YoY to ~₹96,800 crore. JJM-Urban and AMRUT 2.0 continue scale-up.
“Indian cities are the engines of the economy and the orphans of the Constitution. We make policy as if cities were afterthoughts of states, not the places where two-thirds of GDP lives.”
Isher Judge Ahluwalia
Chair, High-Powered Expert Committee on Urban Infrastructure, 2011
09 · The scaleFour numbers

The urban arithmetic.

~600 M
Indians projected to live in cities by 2036 — adding roughly 200 million in 12 years. The urban share will cross 40%.
World Bank, 2024
$840 B
Urban infrastructure investment needed by 2036, per World Bank estimates. Current spend: ~0.6% of GDP; required: ~1.2%. The fiscal gap is the binding constraint.
World Bank Urban Transformation 2024
₹96,800 cr
MoHUA allocation in Union Budget 2025-26 — a 17% increase over the previous year. Urban has become a structural priority of the Union Budget in a way it was not a decade ago.
Union Budget 2025-26
~0.15%GDP
Property tax collection in India. OECD average is ~1.1%. The single largest untapped own-revenue source Indian ULBs have.
NIPFP; World Bank
What worksFour cases

Four urban models.

Singapore · 1965-present

Land-finance and urban planning

Singapore finances much of its urban infrastructure through land-value capture — the government leases state-held land for 99 years and recycles revenue into infrastructure. The Delhi Mumbai Industrial Corridor and GIFT City draw from this template. Legal authority to do this at scale remains the Indian constraint.

India · Indore

Municipal execution at its best

Indore has ranked #1 in Swachh Survekshan for seven consecutive years. Door-to-door segregated waste collection covers nearly 100% of households. The model was built through empowered mayors, stable municipal commissioners, and sustained political commitment. Surat’s post-1994 plague transformation is the closest parallel.

India · Bengaluru property tax reform

Doubling revenue through GIS

Bengaluru’s 2008 Self-Assessment-Scheme + GIS-based property rolls doubled property tax collections in four years. Patna and Lucknow have adapted the model; several other cities are in progress. The technology is not novel; the administrative will is.

India · Tamil Nadu pooled finance

Municipal bonds at scale

Tamil Nadu’s TNUIFSL pools smaller cities’ borrowing capacity to issue investment-grade municipal bonds. Roughly 10 Indian cities have issued bonds since 2017, raising ~₹7,600 crore cumulatively. Small relative to need; proof of concept at scale.

What would workSix levers

Six things that would unlock the urban future.

01
Implement the 74th Amendment, seriously
Thirty-three years on, many of the 18 devolved functions still aren’t fully with ULBs. Empowered mayors with 5-year terms and fiscal autonomy — as in Indore, Surat — deliver measurably better outcomes. State-level political economy is the binding constraint.
02
Modernise property tax
Satellite imagery + GIS + unique property ID = 2-4× revenue, with no new administration. The 16th Finance Commission is positioned to incentivise this transition. Bengaluru’s template is replicable.
03
Build a real municipal bond market
SEBI’s 2015 framework exists; under 15 cities have used it. A pooled-finance vehicle at state level (Tamil Nadu, Kerala templates) lifts smaller cities over the bond-market threshold. The capital exists; the structure to absorb it doesn’t yet.
04
Regularise and upgrade, don’t demolish
In-situ slum upgrading costs roughly a third of relocation housing. Odisha’s Jaga Mission has granted land rights and upgrading to ~2 million residents. The blueprint exists; replication is the question.
05
Fund public transport urgently
PM e-Bus Sewa is the right scale of ambition. 10,000 e-buses is a start; Indian cities need 50-75,000 in the next 5 years. State-level procurement capacity is the binding constraint; the funding envelope exists. The broader EV transition is also moving: overall penetration reached 8.5% of new vehicles in FY26 (2.5 million units), with two-wheelers at 58% share and passenger three-wheelers (L5) crossing 44% penetration.
06
Plan for the climate already here
Every urban master plan being approved in 2025-27 is a 30-year commitment. Tree cover quotas, blue-green infrastructure, flood-risk mapping, ventilation corridors are health infrastructure, not decoration. Heat plans (Chapter 06) sit at the same planning horizon.
On the numbers

Urban data in India is famously fragmented. The Census (2011, with 2021 delayed) is the foundation. MoHUA maintains city-level scheme dashboards. World Bank and OECD produce comparative data with their own methodologies. State-level urban statistics vary in quality.

Urban population projections (including the 2036 figures) are from World Bank and NSO estimates, using demographic transition assumptions that may need revision after the next Census.

Municipal fiscal data is patchy; the NIPFP and Janaagraha City Finance Reports are the most authoritative independent sources. Figures are directional.

Sources & further reading

Primary data: World Bank, Gearing Up for India’s Urban Transformation (2024); Ministry of Housing & Urban Affairs; 15th & 16th Finance Commission documents.

Research: Isher Judge Ahluwalia HPEC 2011; CPR (Partha Mukhopadhyay, Mukta Naik, Shubhagato Dasgupta); IIHS; Janaagraha City Finance Report; Citizen Matters.

Part 10Governance · Rule of law

Justice
delayed.

India’s courts now carry over 5.5 crore pending cases — the largest backlog of any democracy. The pendency rises every year because new filings outpace disposals. Yet the past decade has seen the most serious reforms in Indian judicial administration since Independence: eCourts in Phase III, the first comprehensive replacement of colonial-era criminal codes in 2024, the Mediation Act 2023, and the 2025 unlocking of ad-hoc judges. The scaffolding is more developed. The scale gap remains.

The Indian Supreme Court sits on around 88,000 pending cases. The 25 High Courts, on approximately 62 lakh cases. The subordinate courts that most Indians actually encounter — district, magistrate, family, special courts — sit on over 4.7 crore. Altogether, roughly 5.5 crore pending cases, or one for every 26 Indians.

The problem is not that courts have stopped working. In 2023 alone, Indian courts disposed of around 1.8 crore cases and received around 2 crore new filings. Disposals are running at historically high rates. The gap of ~20 lakh new cases per year adds to the backlog; it does not subtract from it.

What has changed in the past decade is the seriousness of the reform. eCourts has computerised over 21,000 subordinate courts. NJDG provides real-time pendency dashboards. The Mediation Act 2023 institutionalised pre-institution mediation. The 2024 criminal codes replaced the IPC, CrPC, and Indian Evidence Act with timeline-bound procedures. In 2025, the Supreme Court unlocked ad-hoc judges under Article 224A for up to 10% of High Court sanctioned strength. Whether any of this compounds into actual backlog reduction is the empirical question of the next five years.

Uttar Pradesh
117lakh
Maharashtra
54lakh
Bihar
38lakh
West Bengal
32lakh
Tamil Nadu
29lakh
Gujarat
26lakh
Rajasthan
23lakh
Karnataka
22lakh
Madhya Pradesh
20lakh
Andhra Pradesh
14lakh
Kerala
13lakh

Pending cases across all court tiers, in lakhs (hundred-thousands). Source: NJDG 2024 estimates, state-level judicial statistics. Uttar Pradesh accounts for roughly a fifth of all Indian pendency. The Allahabad High Court alone is among the most burdened courts in the country.

Global context

Judges per million population: United States ~150, United Kingdom ~51, Australia ~41, Germany ~38, South Africa ~24, India ~21. The 1987 Law Commission recommendation of 50 per million has not been met in four decades.

On case clearance rate, peer benchmarks diverge widely. Countries with functional mediation and specialisation systems (Singapore, Germany) dispose of civil cases in months; India’s average extends to years. Singapore’s 1990s judicial reform package — case management, mandatory mediation, specialised courts, performance metrics for judges — is the most-cited peer case.

What has been doneThe reform decade

Reform, compounding.

Indian judicial reform has historically been incremental. The past decade broke that pattern. The IBC was a structural reset for commercial law. The Mediation Act 2023 institutionalised a pathway that had long existed informally. The 2024 criminal codes were the largest overhaul since the colonial-era originals. The 2025 ad-hoc judges ruling unlocked a constitutional provision that had lain dormant. Whether this reform momentum outpaces the underlying filing growth is the measurable test.

1987
Law Commission of India 120th Report recommends 50 judges per million population. The ratio today (~21) remains a fraction of that target.
2007-08
eCourts Phase I begins — computerisation of subordinate courts. Foundational groundwork for NJDG.
2015
Commercial Courts Act establishes specialised commercial-dispute infrastructure. National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) framework put in place for IBC.
2016
Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code — the most consequential commercial-law reform of the decade. NCLT clears what the High Courts had failed to for a decade.
2019
Fast Track Special Courts scheme for POCSO and rape cases launched; now over 1,000 FTSCs operational.
2023
Mediation Act institutionalises pre-institution mediation for most commercial disputes. Creates statutory framework for mediators, mediation service providers, and enforcement.
2024
Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita, BNSS, Bharatiya Sakshya Act replace IPC, CrPC, Indian Evidence Act — the first comprehensive overhaul of Indian criminal procedure since 1860-1872. Include statutory timelines for charge-sheeting, evidence, and trial.
2024
eCourts Phase III sanctioned with ~₹7,210 crore outlay. Focus on end-to-end digital courts, virtual hearings, AI-assisted translation, interoperability with police prosecution.
2025
Supreme Court unlocks ad-hoc judges under Article 224A for High Courts, up to 10% of sanctioned strength. Primarily aimed at criminal-appeals backlog.
2025-26
BNSS-mandated timelines begin to bite in some states; NJDG expanded reporting on compliance; India Justice Report continues state-level judicial-performance rankings.
“Every day of delay in a criminal trial is a day of liberty for the guilty and a day of agony for the victim. An undertrial awaiting bail is a day of both for the same person.”
D.Y. Chandrachud, former Chief Justice of India
On undertrial detention, 2024
10 · The scaleFour numbers

The scale problem.

5.5+ crpending
Cases across Indian courts, March 2026. Subordinate courts hold roughly 48 million (~85%); High Courts ~6.3 million; Supreme Court at ~90,000 — the highest in its history.
National Judicial Data Grid 2026
~76%undertrials
Of inmates in Indian prisons are undertrials — awaiting trial, not convicted. Among the highest proportions globally. The Mediation Act 2023, BNSS Section 479 (release at half-sentence served), and Supreme Court’s 2025 unlocking of ad-hoc judges (Article 224A) are the policy levers; implementation remains the variable.
India Justice Report 2025
~21per mn
India’s judge-to-population ratio. The Law Commission recommended 50 in 1987. The vacancy backlog has compounded over four decades.
Law Commission 120th Report; Ministry of Law 2024
~50%
Of all pending cases have the government (Centre or state) as a party. The state is the single largest litigant in India. Most of this could be ended with disciplined National Litigation Policy enforcement.
LIMBS; PRS
What worksFour cases

Four reform models.

Singapore · 1990s

The judicial reform package

Singapore went from a backlog-ridden system in the late 1980s to one of the world’s most efficient judiciaries in a decade. Case management, mandatory mediation, specialised courts, performance metrics for judges, aggressive caseflow technology. The most-cited peer reform example globally.

India · NCLT/IBC

The one reform that worked at scale

The Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code 2016 + NCLT infrastructure resolved in five years what High Courts had failed to for a decade. Over 8,000 cases resolved; ~₹3.5 lakh crore in value recovered; average resolution time compressed from 4+ years to under 18 months for completed cases. The lesson: specialised benches with focused mandates work.

India · Lok Adalats

Alternative dispute resolution at scale

Lok Adalats, run by state legal services authorities, disposed of ~1.5 crore cases in 2023-24. Pre-litigation settlement of compoundable disputes, motor vehicle claims, cheque-bounce cases, family matters. A uniquely Indian institutional innovation now being studied abroad.

India · Delhi HC

Digital administration done right

The Delhi High Court has the most advanced e-filing and case-management infrastructure of any Indian High Court. Average case disposal time has fallen ~18% since 2019; mandatory e-filing for several categories; near-universal digital cause lists. The gap is uneven adoption across the other 24 HCs and 17,000 subordinate courts.

What would workSix levers

Six things that would unclog the system.

01
Fill the vacancies
India has ~360 vacant High Court posts against ~1,122 sanctioned (~30%). The collegium pipeline is the single most consequential reform available. Every vacant seat is a year of delay for thousands of litigants. The Memorandum of Procedure between government and judiciary has been unresolved for a decade; resolution is overdue.
02
Reduce government litigation
The state is party to ~50% of pending cases. A functional National Litigation Policy with monetary thresholds for appeals, strict pre-filing review, and accountability for avoidable appeals would clear lakhs of cases. The draft NLP has been under consideration for over a decade.
03
Operationalise BNSS timelines
The 2024 codes set statutory deadlines for charge-sheeting, evidence, and trial. Enforcement requires judges, courtrooms, staff, and administrative discipline. The rules exist; the infrastructure to hold them accountable is still being built.
04
Extend mediation aggressively
The Mediation Act 2023 set the framework. What shifts outcomes is judges who refer early with deadlines, and parties who engage seriously. Commercial Courts have started; family and civil disputes are the next frontier. Singapore’s mandatory-referral-with-consequences model is the operational template.
05
Specialise the benches
NCLT cleared IBC backlogs the High Courts never did. Environmental benches, cyber benches, commercial courts, IP tribunals, GST tribunals. Replicated across the system, specialisation makes existing judges more productive.
06
Address the undertrial crisis
Section 479 BNSS 2024 mandates release on bail for undertrials who have served half the maximum sentence (for first-time offenders). Quarterly NALSA undertrial review committees exist on paper; consistent implementation is the test. The lives of lakhs of undertrials depend on the operational reality.
“The courts cannot save themselves alone. The legislature that legislates vaguely, the executive that litigates reflexively, the Bar that obstructs procedurally — each contributes. Judicial reform is systemic; it is not a courtroom problem alone.”
Pratap Bhanu Mehta
On Indian judicial reform, 2023
On the numbers

Pendency figures vary across sources (NJDG, Supreme Court annual reports, India Justice Report, PRS, state-level data). NJDG is updated daily; aggregate totals differ slightly across reporting dates.

The ~50% figure for government as litigant comes from LIMBS and is widely cited but not updated in real-time; treat as directional.

Undertrial figures come from NCRB Prison Statistics and India Justice Report, using different methodologies. The ~76% undertrial share is consistent across sources within a 3-4 percentage-point band.

Sources & further reading

Primary data: National Judicial Data Grid; India Justice Report 2025; Department of Justice vacancy data; NCRB Prison Statistics.

Research: DAKSH; Vidhi Centre for Legal Policy; PRS Legislative Research; Law Commission of India Reports 120, 230, 245.

Policy: Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita 2023; Bharatiya Nagarik Suraksha Sanhita 2023; Mediation Act 2023; eCourts Mission Mode Project documentation.

Part 11Governance · Public finance

Where the
rupee goes.

The Union Budget 2026-27 projects total expenditure of approximately ₹53.5 lakh crore — roughly $640 billion. The Indian central government is now among the world’s ten largest by budget. Over the past decade, capital-expenditure share has risen from around 1.5% of GDP to 3.1%. The GST rollout formalised a large share of the economy. The fiscal deficit has been brought from a post-Covid peak of ~9% back to ~4.3%. The shape of the budget is the shape of the state.

Every February, the Union Budget is laid before Parliament. What people remember from the speech is typically two or three numbers — the tax-slab change, the fiscal deficit, one or two new schemes. What the Budget actually is, however, is a 1,500-page document of allocations that determines how the central government spends roughly ₹53 lakh crore over the next year. Twenty-six paise of every rupee the Union spends goes to interest on past borrowings. Twenty-two to states as their share of taxes. Eight to subsidies. Eight to defence. Six to pensions. Everything else is allocated within the residual.

The past decade’s fiscal story has been one of structural reform layered on cyclical shock. GST (2017) is the largest indirect tax reform in independent India’s history — 17 central and state taxes collapsed into one regime. The Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (2016) gave creditors a legal framework that cleared a decade of bad-loan accumulation. Direct Benefit Transfer via Jan Dhan-Aadhaar-Mobile is estimated to have saved over $27 billion in welfare leakage by 2022. Capital expenditure has roughly tripled as a share of GDP. The fiscal deficit has travelled from pre-Covid 3.3% to post-Covid 9% to FY26 target of 4.3%. The shape of the Indian fiscal state has changed more in the past decade than in the two before it.

Interest payments
26%
States’ share of taxes
22%
Central sector schemes
16%
Centrally-sponsored schemes
8%
Subsidies
8%
Defence (excl pensions)
8%
Pensions
6%
Other grants/loans
4%
FC grants
2%

Composition of Union expenditure by major category, BE 2026-27. Source: PRS Legislative Research analysis of Union Budget 2026-27.

Global context

Tax-to-GDP ratio (approximate): India ~18%, China ~28%, Brazil ~33%, United States ~27%, OECD average ~34%, UK ~33%, South Africa ~27%. India’s tax base is narrow by peer standards. GST has formalised large parts of the informal economy; direct-tax filers remain only about 2-3% of the population.

Interest payments as % of revenue receipts: India ~40%, US ~15%, Germany ~2%, China ~10%. India’s high ratio reflects the accumulated cost of past fiscal deficits. Every year real GDP growth exceeds interest rates, this ratio improves automatically. The FRBM glide path toward 50% debt-to-GDP by 2031 is the policy vehicle.

What has been doneThe fiscal reform decade

Reform, compounding.

The past decade’s fiscal reforms — GST, IBC, DBT, capex push, fiscal consolidation — together represent the most substantial structural reform in Indian public finance since liberalisation 1991. The outcomes are uneven but the trajectory is unambiguous: a state that collects taxes more efficiently, spends more on productive capital, and is on a credible debt-to-GDP glide path.

2014-16
Direct Benefit Transfer architecture matures through Jan Dhan-Aadhaar-Mobile. Welfare-leakage reduction estimated at ~$27 billion by 2022.
2016
Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code — structural reset for commercial debt recovery. Cleared a decade of accumulated bad loans.
2017
Goods and Services Tax rolls out — 17 central and state taxes collapsed into one. The largest indirect tax reform in independent India.
2019-20
Fiscal expansion to address growth slowdown. Corporate-tax rate cut to 22% (15% for new manufacturing).
2020-22
Covid response: fiscal deficit peaks at ~9% of GDP. PM-Garib Kalyan Yojana provides free food-grains to ~80 crore. Atmanirbhar Bharat package spans economic, social, and financial measures.
2021
Capital-expenditure push begins in earnest — share of GDP rises from ~1.5% toward 3%+. Infrastructure — highways, railways, ports — explicitly prioritised.
2023
GST collections cross ₹20 lakh crore annually. GST compliance technology (GSTN, invoice matching) among the most sophisticated globally.
2024-25
New tax regime made more attractive; income up to ₹12 lakh tax-free under new regime for FY25-26. Revenue foregone ~₹1 lakh crore.
2025-26
Fiscal deficit target 4.4%, down from 4.8%. Capital expenditure at 3.1% of GDP. MoHUA, agri, defence see significant increases.
Late 2025
MGNREGA renamed VB-G RAM G (Viksit Bharat-Guarantee for Rozgar and Ajeevika Mission, Gramin) in late 2025. Statutory entitlement raised from 100 to 125 days; Centre-State funding shifts from 100% Centre wages to a 60-40 split (90-10 for North-East and Himalayan states). Fiscal-federalism implications are significant.
2026-27
Fiscal deficit target 4.3%. Total expenditure ~₹53.5 lakh crore. National Manufacturing Mission operationalised. VB-G RAM G allocated ₹95,692 crore (49% of Department of Rural Development budget); residual MGNREGA ₹30,000 crore for transition.
“Interest payments are the largest item in our budget. They are also the one nobody campaigns on. The bill comes due every year regardless of who is in power.”
Dr Duvvuri Subbarao, former RBI Governor
On the fiscal constraint of legacy borrowing
11 · The compositionFour numbers

The shape of the state.

~₹53.5 L cr
Union government expenditure, BE 2026-27 — roughly $640 billion. Among the world’s ten largest national budgets.
Union Budget 2026-27
~26%
Of total Union spending goes to interest payments — the single largest line item. Equivalent to ~40% of revenue receipts.
PRS Legislative Research
~4.3%of GDP
Fiscal deficit target for 2026-27, down from 4.8% in 2024-25 and the 9% post-Covid peak. India is on a credible consolidation path.
Ministry of Finance FRBM
~3.1%of GDP
Capital expenditure share — up from ~1.5% a decade ago. The most significant shift in the composition of Indian public spending in recent memory.
Union Budget capex data, MoF
What worksFour cases

Four fiscal reforms.

Brazil · Bolsa Familia

Direct transfers at scale

Brazil’s Bolsa Familia covered ~14 million households at peak — the template for conditional cash transfers that India’s DBT architecture draws from. Indian DBT now covers far more beneficiaries (~90 crore across 300+ schemes) with digital plumbing more sophisticated than the Brazilian original.

India · IBC/NCLT

Structural creditor-debtor reset

Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code 2016 + NCLT cleared ~₹3.5 lakh crore of stressed-asset recovery in five years. India’s World Bank Resolving Insolvency rank improved from 136 to 52 in four years. The single most consequential commercial-law reform of the decade.

India · GSTN

Digital tax infrastructure

GSTN is among the most sophisticated tax platforms in any G20 country. Real-time invoice matching, e-way bills, input tax credit reconciliation at scale. The formalisation of SMEs through mandatory GST filing is an under-appreciated structural shift.

Estonia · e-Tax

Return-less tax filing

Estonia’s e-Tax Board pre-fills tax returns based on employer and financial-institution reporting. Filing takes 3-5 minutes; compliance is near-universal. India has the data infrastructure (TDS, AIS, Form 26AS) to do this; the policy design to complete the pre-filing shift is the remaining step.

What would workSix levers

Six things that would reshape the budget.

01
Expand the direct tax base
Only ~2-3% of Indians file income tax. Every 1% rise in tax-to-GDP is roughly ₹3.3 lakh crore in additional fiscal space. India’s tax technology is world-class; the political willingness to use it for compliance rather than coercion is the constraint.
02
Stay on the fiscal consolidation path
Every year real GDP growth exceeds interest rates, debt-to-GDP falls automatically. The FRBM glide path to 50% debt-to-GDP by 2031 is credible if growth holds. Disciplined consolidation plus growth is the only honest path; monetising deficits through RBI always ends in inflation.
03
Consolidate centrally-sponsored schemes
Over 100 CSSs account for ~8% of Union spending. A 2015 NITI Aayog review found over 60% had overlapping objectives. Rationalisation into 20-25 umbrella schemes with state-level flexibility would raise outcomes per rupee spent.
04
Target subsidies, don’t eliminate them
DBT-Aadhaar targeting of LPG has reduced leakage substantially. Food subsidies (~₹2.3 lakh crore) remain less targeted. A means-tested food subsidy with higher transfers to the bottom quintile would spend similar money with larger welfare effect.
05
Bind medium-term expenditure
FRBM targets get revised often. A binding Medium-Term Expenditure Framework — committing departments to 3-year rolling envelopes — forces prioritisation and ends the December rush to spend unused budgets.
06
Strengthen state capacity for public goods
India spends ~1.8% of GDP on health, ~2.9% on education, ~0.7% on R&D. The gap is not total resources (the budget is large); it is prioritisation within the budget. Every 0.1 percentage point shift is ₹30,000 crore. Compounded over a decade, this is transformative.
“Seven rupees out of every hundred the Union spends go to defence. Eight rupees go to food, fertiliser and LPG subsidies. Twenty-six rupees go to interest on past debt. That is the shape of the budget; everything else is allocation within what remains.”
PRS Legislative Research
Annual Union Budget Analysis
On the numbers

Budget figures come from Ministry of Finance documents. PRS Legislative Research produces a concise analysis within a week of each budget — the most accessible third-party source. CAG audit reports assess actual vs budgeted spending.

BE (Budget Estimate) figures are revised to RE (Revised Estimate) mid-year and ultimately to Actuals 18-24 months later. All percentages of GDP are based on projected nominal GDP; actual GDP for FY26 will be known later.

Tax-to-GDP comparisons across countries vary slightly by methodology (whether social security contributions are included, etc.). Treat as directional.

Sources & further reading

Primary data: Union Budget 2026-27; PRS Union Budget Analysis; Economic Survey 2024-25; 15th and 16th Finance Commission reports.

Research: NIPFP (Pinaki Chakraborty, M. Govinda Rao); Rathin Roy; CAG audit reports; Accountability Initiative Budget Briefs; CBGA (Centre for Budget and Governance Accountability).

Part 12Environment · Climate

From coal
to sun.

In June 2025, India reached 50% non-fossil electricity capacity — five years ahead of the Paris Agreement target. Solar capacity has risen roughly 50-fold in a decade. India is now the world’s third-largest solar power producer. The fastest clean-energy transition underway in any G20 economy is happening at India’s scale and pace. Coal still dominates actual generation; the transition is partial. But the direction and the policy architecture are unambiguous.

In 2014, India had about 2.8 GW of solar. By early 2026, about 150 GW. That is a 53-fold rise in eleven years, a pace no other large economy has matched. Total installed electricity capacity crossed 530 GW at end-FY26, of which 53% is now non-fossil. India hit the Paris Agreement NDC target of 50% non-fossil capacity in June 2025, five years ahead of schedule, and now ranks third globally in installed renewable-energy capacity (IRENA 2026), having moved past Brazil.

The policy machinery has matured in parallel. The Production Linked Incentive for solar modules has driven domestic manufacturing capacity from 2.3 GW in 2014 to about 172 GW in 2026, a 75-fold expansion. PM Surya Ghar Muft Bijli Yojana targets 1 crore rooftop-solar households by 2026-27, with about 45 lakh installed by early 2026. Battery Energy Storage Systems have seen about 43 GWh sanctioned under two viability-gap-funding schemes. The Green Hydrogen Mission targets 5 MMT annual production by 2030. The September 2025 GST cut on renewable equipment from 12% to 5% measurably lowered project costs.

What hasn’t fully closed: coal still produces around 70% of actual electricity (capacity is not generation). Transmission bottlenecks are causing peak-hour curtailment in some states. Discom finances remain fragile, with cumulative losses above ₹6 lakh crore. A formal just-transition framework for coal-dependent states is still being built. The transition is real and measurable. Its completion depends on storage, transmission, and discom reform.

2014
2.6GW
2016
9GW
2018
24.4GW
2020
37.5GW
2022
62GW
2024
94.2GW
Mar 2026
150GW
2030 target
293GW

Cumulative solar installed capacity in India (GW). Source: MNRE. The 2030 target of 500 GW non-fossil includes ~293 GW of solar. Costs have fallen dramatically — Indian solar PPAs now clear below ₹2.50/kWh, lower than new coal in most cases.

Global context

Per-capita CO&sub2; emissions (tonnes/year): US ~14, Russia ~12, Japan ~8, China ~8, Germany ~8, World average ~4.7, India ~2.0, Bangladesh ~0.5. India is the 3rd-largest absolute emitter and among the lowest per person in the G20. India’s cumulative share of global emissions since 1850 is ~3%.

Non-fossil capacity share: India ~53%, China ~52%, Germany ~65%, Brazil ~83%, US ~43%. Among large developing economies, India’s pace of transition is near the front. Brazil has more non-fossil, but Brazil’s grid is hydro-dominated; India’s transition is the harder one because it combines solar scale-up with a coal-base country.

What has been doneThe clean-energy decade

Transition, accelerating.

The past decade has been the most consequential in Indian energy policy since independence. Solar capacity up 50-fold. Wind crossing 50 GW. Domestic solar-module manufacturing from near-zero to ~144 GW/year. PM Surya Ghar targeting 1 crore rooftop households. Battery storage operationalising. Green Hydrogen Mission funded. Collectively, the most ambitious energy-transition architecture of any large developing economy.

2015-16
National Solar Mission targets revised sharply upward. Solar Parks scheme launched.
2017
Solar tariff hits below ₹2.50/kWh at competitive auctions — lower than new coal for the first time.
2019
PM-KUSUM launched — solar pumps for farmers, decentralised generation on barren farm land.
2021
India announces at COP26: 500 GW non-fossil capacity by 2030; 50% renewable electricity by 2030; net-zero by 2070.
2022
National Green Hydrogen Mission launched with ~₹19,700 crore outlay. Targets 5 MMT/year of green hydrogen by 2030.
2023
PLI for High-Efficiency Solar PV Modules scales. Domestic solar-module manufacturing capacity rises sharply.
2024
PM Surya Ghar Muft Bijli Yojana launched — target of 1 crore rooftop-solar households by 2026-27 with subsidy up to ₹78,000 per household.
2024
Battery Energy Storage Systems: ~43 GWh of VGF-backed capacity sanctioned across two schemes.
2025
India hits 50% non-fossil capacity in June 2025, five years ahead of NDC target. Solar crosses 100 GW in early 2025; reaches 150 GW by early 2026. Total installed capacity crosses 530 GW. India added a record 55.3 GW of non-fossil capacity in FY26, the highest annual addition ever. GST on renewable equipment cut from 12% to 5% in late 2025.
2025-26
Nuclear Energy Mission for Small Modular Reactors announced with ~₹20,000 crore outlay; SHANTI Act 2025 enables civil-nuclear reforms (target: 100 GW nuclear by 2047). India ranks 3rd globally in renewable-energy capacity per IRENA Renewable Energy Statistics 2026, ahead of Brazil.
“India achieved 50 per cent of its installed electricity capacity from non-fossil fuel sources in June 2025, more than five years ahead of its Nationally Determined Contribution target. This is a climate-action milestone of global significance.”
Ministry of New & Renewable Energy
Press release, July 2025
12 · The transitionFour numbers

The acceleration.

~53%
Non-fossil share of installed electricity capacity, end-FY26. The 50% threshold was reached in June 2025, five years ahead of the Paris Agreement target.
Ministry of New & Renewable Energy, March 2026
~530GW
Total installed electricity generation capacity, March 2026. Solar: ~150 GW. Wind: ~56 GW. Coal: ~219 GW. Nuclear: 8.8 GW.
Central Electricity Authority, early 2026
~2.0tCO&sub2;/cap
India’s per-capita emissions. US ~14; world average ~4.7. India is the 3rd-largest absolute emitter; among the lowest per person in the G20.
Global Carbon Atlas 2023
~172GW/yr
Indian solar-module manufacturing capacity, early 2026, up from 2.3 GW in 2014 (a 75-fold expansion). Now nearly self-sufficient; the PLI-driven build-out is one of the fastest manufacturing scale-ups of the decade.
MNRE, 2026
What worksFour cases

Four transition models.

China · 2010-present

Manufacturing and deployment at scale

China built solar manufacturing and deployment concurrently. Annual additions now exceed 200 GW. The Chinese lesson for India is industrial-policy coordination: module manufacturing, cell manufacturing, polysilicon, and deployment subsidies moving together. India’s PLI for solar modules is the adapted template.

India · Gujarat Solar Park

The solar-park template

Charanka Solar Park in Gujarat was India’s first large-scale solar park (2012). The template — state-aggregated land, transmission pre-built, competitive auctions — drove costs below ₹2.50/kWh by 2017. Now replicated across 14 Indian states; Bhadla (Rajasthan) is the world’s largest at over 2 GW.

Germany · Energiewende

Distributed solar at household scale

Germany’s Energiewende brought solar to a third of all households. Feed-in tariffs, net metering, community-owned generation. The Indian PM Surya Ghar scheme is the adapted architecture for distributed rooftop deployment at household scale.

Vietnam · 2017-20

The rapid-deployment cautionary tale

Vietnam added ~19 GW of solar in 3 years, then faced grid-integration and curtailment problems. The lesson: deployment without matching transmission and storage capacity produces stranded assets. India’s Green Energy Corridor and Battery Storage schemes are the deliberate answer to this risk.

What would workSix levers

Six things that would complete the transition.

01
Displace coal generation, not just add renewables
India has added renewables. Coal generation has also grown because demand has grown faster. Capacity is not generation — 51% non-fossil capacity translates to ~25% renewable generation. Retiring oldest coal plants while substituting with firm renewables (solar+storage, RTC tenders) is the harder next phase.
02
Build the transmission, or solar doesn’t flow
Green Energy Corridors Phases I and II are closing the evacuation gap; ~₹2.5 lakh crore needed by 2030 per CEA. Without transmission, renewable capacity risks curtailment.
03
Fix discom finances
State distribution companies carry ~₹6 lakh crore in cumulative losses. Tariff rationalisation is politically fraught. UDAY, RDSS, prepaid smart metering are the current interventions; structural change is unfinished. Without financially solvent discoms, the off-taker for renewable power is fragile.
04
Scale storage manufacturing
Current BESS additions are <10% of 2030 need. PLI for Advanced Chemistry Cells (₹18,100 crore) aims to replicate the solar-module success for batteries. Execution is early; China still dominates upstream lithium and cell manufacturing.
05
Build a just-transition framework
Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, and Bengal depend on coal employment and revenue. A credible national just-transition policy — reskilling, industrial diversification, revenue substitution — would shore up the political coalition for coal retirement.
06
Invest in electric mobility, at scale
FAME, PM E-Drive, PM e-Bus Sewa, PLI-ACC, and tariff-support structures are in place. Overall EV penetration reached 8.5% of new vehicles in FY26 (about 2.5 million units), up from 7.7% in FY25. Two-wheelers now make up 58% of EV volumes; passenger three-wheelers (L5) crossed 44% penetration in early 2026; four-wheelers ~5-6%. Public charging stations exceed 27,000. Indonesia and Thailand have more aggressive consumer subsidies; India has leaned more on supply-side PLI.
“India is on track to be the world’s largest solar market within a decade. The combination of domestic manufacturing, declining cost, and policy support is unique among emerging economies.”
Tim Buckley, IEEFA
On India’s solar trajectory, 2024
On the numbers

Installed capacity figures from CEA and MNRE are updated monthly and are authoritative. Generation figures (how much electricity is actually produced) are reported separately and lag capacity additions. All figures are directional.

Per-capita emission comparisons use Global Carbon Atlas / Our World in Data. Methodologies and base years vary slightly across sources.

PLI investment figures include both realised and committed investment across 14 sectors; cumulative figures are reported by Ministry of Commerce & Industry.

Sources & further reading

Primary data: Ministry of New & Renewable Energy; Central Electricity Authority; Ember Energy India Report; Our World in Data emissions; IRENA Renewable Capacity Statistics 2025.

Research: CEEW; IEEFA; Prayas (Energy Group); Brookings India energy work.

Part 13Governance · Digital infrastructure

Built on
trust.

Around half of the world’s real-time payment transactions now happen in India. UPI grew from about 2 million transactions a month in late 2016 to roughly 22 billion a month in early 2026, the fastest adoption of any payment system in human history. The IMF has formally recognised UPI as the world’s largest real-time payment system, and UPI is now live in 8+ countries (UAE, Singapore, Bhutan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, France, Mauritius, Qatar). Aadhaar covers the entire resident population. ONDC, Account Aggregators, DigiLocker, Bhashini. The India Stack is the most significant policy export of the Global South in a generation.

In 2009, India did not have a system of digital identity covering its population. In 2016, it did not have a real-time payments system. By early 2026, Aadhaar had issued over 142 crore numbers (the world’s largest digital-identity programme), UPI was processing ~22 billion monthly transactions worth ~₹29 lakh crore (about half of all global real-time payments), DigiLocker held over 800 crore digital documents, and ONDC had crossed several hundred million cumulative orders. The AI Impact Summit at Bharat Mandapam, hosted in early 2026, was India’s coming-out as a multilateral convener of the AI policy conversation. Account Aggregators had begun mediating financial-data flows at scale. None of these existed fifteen years ago. Their combined effect on Indian life is the largest single technological transformation of the past two decades.

The India Stack is a set of interoperable digital public goods, each addressing a specific foundational gap and working with the others. Aadhaar provides identity. UPI provides payments. DigiLocker provides document storage. DEPA / Account Aggregator provides consented data sharing. ONDC provides an open protocol for e-commerce. Bhashini provides language translation. GSTN provides tax infrastructure. Together they constitute the most ambitious attempt by any state to build population-scale digital utilities.

Dec 2016
2mn txns
Dec 2018
620mn txns
Dec 2020
2234mn txns
Dec 2022
7829mn txns
Apr 2026
22350mn txns

Monthly UPI transactions (millions). Source: NPCI. The 2016-20 ramp was partly driven by demonetisation and pandemic cash avoidance; 2020-onward growth is structural adoption across merchants, P2P transfers, and increasingly cross-border use cases.

Global context

Share of global real-time payment transactions: India ~50%, Brazil (Pix) ~15%, Thailand (PromptPay) ~8%, China ~6%, South Korea ~3.5%, UK ~2.3%, US ~1.5%. Card-dominant legacy economies have been slower adopters. Brazil’s Pix launched 2020 and grew rapidly; India’s UPI started in 2016 and is now both the largest and the fastest-growing.

Number of countries adapting the India Stack template: 10+ MoUs signed, including Armenia, Sierra Leone, Suriname, Papua New Guinea, Trinidad & Tobago, Tanzania, Kenya, Cuba, Colombia, Antigua & Barbuda. Brazil, Nigeria, and Ghana have built adapted variants. The India Stack is India’s largest digital export.

What has been builtThe stack decade

The India Stack, assembled.

The past decade-and-a-half has produced the most consequential set of public digital infrastructure anywhere in the world. Not the most advanced technically — Estonia’s is arguably ahead — but the most consequential by scale. The India Stack has become a template studied, adapted, and in some cases directly imported by countries across the Global South.

2009
Unique Identification Authority of India (UIDAI) established. First Aadhaar number issued September 2010.
2014
Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana launched — target universal bank accounts. Crosses 52 crore accounts by 2024.
2016
UPI launched by NPCI. First month: ~2 million transactions. Rapid adoption post-demonetisation.
2017
Goods and Services Tax Network (GSTN) goes live. Foundational infrastructure of the GST regime.
2018
Supreme Court Aadhaar judgment (K.S. Puttaswamy v UoI II) upholds Aadhaar for welfare subsidies; restricts mandatory private-sector linkage. Sets constitutional boundaries.
2020
UPI transactions cross 2 billion/month during pandemic.
2021
Account Aggregator framework operationalised — consent-based financial data sharing. RBI-licensed AAs begin mediating flows.
2022
ONDC (Open Network for Digital Commerce) launched — protocol-level attempt to unbundle e-commerce from platform monopolies.
2023
Digital Personal Data Protection Act 2023 passed — India’s first comprehensive privacy law. Rules being notified phased.
2024
16.7 billion UPI transactions/month by December. Aadhaar authentication crosses 100 crore in face-auth alone. ONDC crosses 150 million cumulative orders.
2025-26
UPI crosses 22 billion transactions/month (~₹29 lakh crore in value). IMF formally recognises UPI as the world’s largest real-time payment system. UPI live in 8+ countries.
Early 2026
AI Impact Summit at Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi. India hosts the first AI Impact Summit, positioning itself as the multilateral convener of the AI-policy conversation in the Global South.
2024-25
Unified Lending Interface (ULI) launches — DPI for credit. RBI pilot scaling. Bhashini expands to 50+ languages.
“India leapfrogged the PC era, the branch-banking era, and the credit-card era. Our DPI was born digital, mobile-first, and built for a billion. That is not an accident; it was a choice.”
Nandan Nilekani
Co-founder, UIDAI / Aadhaar
13 · The scaleFour numbers

The India Stack, quantified.

~22 bn/month
UPI transactions, early 2026. In December 2016 there were ~2 million. An increase of more than ten thousand times in under a decade. Live in 8+ countries; the IMF formally recognised UPI as the world’s largest real-time payment system.
NPCI; IMF 2025-26
~₹29 L cr
Total value of UPI transactions in a typical month, early 2026. Roughly $350 billion in a single month of Indian retail payments — larger than the monthly GDP of most G20 economies.
NPCI; RBI Payment System Statistics
~142 cr
Aadhaar numbers generated, early 2026 — effectively the entire Indian resident population. The world’s largest digital-identity system.
UIDAI
$27+ Bsaved
Estimated welfare-leakage savings via DBT-Aadhaar-Jan Dhan linkage, by 2022. The fiscal case for DPI is not just digitisation — it is leakage reduction.
DBT Mission
What worksFour cases

Four DPI cases.

Brazil · Pix

The Pix parallel

Brazil launched Pix (central-bank-operated instant payments) in November 2020. By 2024, Pix accounted for ~15% of global real-time payments. Pix and UPI together now handle about two-thirds of global real-time payment volume. The structural choice — public-utility payment rails over card networks — is now visibly global.

Estonia · X-Road

Data interoperability done right

Estonia’s X-Road infrastructure is the most sophisticated government-data interoperability system globally. ~99% of government services are digital; citizens interact with the state through a single digital identity. India’s ABDM, ULI, and DEPA frameworks draw from X-Road principles.

Singapore · Singpass

National digital identity at scale

Singpass covers all Singapore residents with biometric + password + app-based multi-factor identity. Used for tax filing, driving licence, medical records, banking, voting. The Singapore model is more integrated with private-sector services than Aadhaar is.

India · CoWIN

DPI at crisis scale

CoWIN administered over 220 crore Covid vaccine doses — the largest vaccination campaign in human history. Built in six weeks on the India Stack backbone; later offered as DPI to other countries. The case study most cited globally for what Indian DPI can do at emergency scale.

What would workSix levers

Six things that would protect the stack.

01
Operationalise data protection with teeth
The DPDP Act 2023 is the legal foundation. Rules, the Data Protection Board, and a meaningful penalty regime are the implementation test. Without credible enforcement, the Act is compliance theatre; with it, Indian DPI becomes one of the best-governed data ecosystems globally.
02
Build the audit trail, not just the API
Every Aadhaar authentication visible to the resident is technically trivial and governance-critical. Complaint-resolution for DBT failures, eKYC errors, and authentication mismatches remains patchy. The tech scales; the grievance-redress should scale with it.
03
Lock in UPI openness
Google Pay, PhonePe, and Paytm handle ~95% of UPI volume. NPCI’s proposed 30% per-PSP market-share cap has been repeatedly deferred. Enforcing the cap, even with a long glide path, would distribute risk and preserve the openness that makes UPI a public good.
04
Scale ONDC deliberately
ONDC is the clearest test of protocol-vs-platform. Early traction is real but small relative to the gravity of Amazon and Flipkart. Government should patiently back it rather than rush to declare victory.
05
Fund DPI as public infrastructure
NPCI is a non-profit owned by banks. UIDAI is a statutory body. Long-term sustainability requires a settled funding model. A thin transaction levy, central-bank allocation, or regulated fee structure — all technically possible; none yet settled.
06
Export DPI with the governance lessons
India’s 10+ MoUs are legitimate soft power. Sharing the flaws — Aadhaar exclusion cases, UPI concentration, unfinished privacy architecture — is as important as sharing the architecture. Other jurisdictions should adopt with eyes open.
“India’s DPI is arguably the most significant policy export of the Global South in a generation. Brazil’s Pix, Nigeria’s eNaira, Ghana’s GhIPSS, and efforts in Kenya and Indonesia all draw from the Indian template.”
World Economic Forum
Global Risks Report 2024
On the numbers

UPI transaction data is reported monthly by NPCI and is considered authoritative. Volume and value figures are updated in real time and widely cross-referenced by RBI.

Aadhaar figures are reported by UIDAI. 138 crore is cumulative Aadhaar numbers generated; active/linked Aadhaar is a different (slightly lower) figure.

DBT leakage savings ($27 billion by 2022) is a government estimate; independent academic estimates fall within a broader range. Treat as directional.

Sources & further reading

Primary data: NPCI payment statistics; UIDAI; ONDC; RBI Payment System Statistics.

Research: ORF America Digital Public Infrastructure (2026); Nilekani & Shah Rebooting India; Reetika Khera on Aadhaar & welfare; Rahul Matthan The Third Way.

Commentary: MediaNama; IFF; SFLC.

Part 14Governance · Democracy

The ballot
box.

Around 642 million Indians voted in the 2024 general election — the largest democratic exercise in human history. Over 1 million polling stations. 15 million election workers. Electoral bonds struck down by the Supreme Court weeks before polls opened. The BJP returned with a mandate softened from 2019; the Congress revived. Women voter turnout hit an all-time record. The exercise itself, at this scale, is the achievement.

Between 19 April and 1 June 2024, India conducted its 18th general election. 642 million voters cast ballots. 969 million were eligible. The exercise unfolded over 44 days, across 7 phases, at 1.05 million polling stations, administered by 15 million election workers and security personnel. For scale comparison: more Indians voted in 2024 than the combined populations of the United States, Russia, Germany, and Japan.

Every one of those numbers is a statistic. Together, they are a claim: that an electoral system of this scale can function, in a country with 22 scheduled languages, 28 states, 8 union territories, a geography that includes the Himalayas and the Andamans, and income levels that span from the poorest villages in Bihar to the richest neighbourhoods in Mumbai. It worked. Again.

The story of the past decade’s electoral reforms is a mix: some genuine improvements (home voting for elderly and disabled voters, record female turnout, accessibility infrastructure, the 2023 Women’s Reservation Act); some open questions (the 2023 CEC & ECs Appointment Act’s executive-majority selection panel; the post-electoral-bonds political-finance vacuum). The process is strong. The reforms that compound it further are the ongoing work.

1st LS (1952)
45.7%
5th LS (1971)
55.3%
8th LS (1984)
63.6%
13th LS (1999)
59.9%
15th LS (2009)
58.2%
16th LS (2014)
66.4%
17th LS (2019)
67.4%
18th LS (2024)
65.8%

Voter turnout in each Lok Sabha election, 1952-2024. Source: Election Commission of India historical data. Notable: 2014 marked the start of sustained 65%+ turnout; 2019’s 67.4% was India’s highest-ever.

Global context

Voter turnout in recent national elections: India 2024 (~66%), Australia 2022 (~91% — compulsory), Brazil 2022 (~79%), United Kingdom 2024 (~60%), United States 2024 (~62%), France 2022 (~72%), Germany 2021 (~77%).

India’s turnout is comparable to established Western democracies — at a population scale none of them approach. The closest comparison is not another country but the rest of the democratic world combined: India conducts, in a single election, more voting than every other country south of the Tropic of Capricorn put together.

What has been doneThe expanding franchise

The process, expanded.

The mechanics of Indian elections have been steadily refined over the past decade. VVPAT universal since 2019. Two EVMs per booth to reduce queues. Home voting for elderly and disabled from 2024. Accessibility infrastructure at every polling station. Women’s Reservation Act on the books. Record female participation. None of these solves the deeper political-finance and representation questions; all of them make the mechanics more inclusive and functional than at any point before.

1950
Election Commission of India established — a constitutional body under Article 324. The first general election (1951-52) remains the largest peaceful transfer of power to universal adult suffrage in history.
1988
Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) piloted in select constituencies. Full national rollout by 2004.
2013
NOTA (None of the Above) option introduced following Supreme Court direction.
2013
VVPAT (Voter-Verified Paper Audit Trail) machines introduced to supplement EVM auditability. Universal rollout by 2019.
2019
Introduction of 2 EVMs per polling station to reduce long queues. Postal ballots expanded to more categories.
2023
Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam (106th Amendment) — 33% women’s reservation in Lok Sabha and state assemblies. First major structural reform after 27 years of attempts.
2023
Chief Election Commissioner and Election Commissioners Appointment Act passed — selection panel of PM, Leader of Opposition, and a Union Minister. Civil-society petitions challenging this are before the Supreme Court.
2024
Electoral bonds struck down by Supreme Court, 15 February 2024 — weeks before polls opened. SBI ordered to release donor data; published March 2024.
2024
Home voting introduced for voters above 85 and persons with disabilities. Accessibility infrastructure at every polling booth — ramps, Braille ballots, sign-language interpreters.
2024
18th Lok Sabha elections: 642 million voters; 312 million women — highest female participation ever. BJP 240, INDIA bloc 234, NDA 293. Return to coalition politics.
2026
131st Constitutional Amendment (to delink Women’s Reservation from post-Census delimitation) tabled; fails on the floor 17 April 2026.
“642 million Indians voted in the 2024 general election. 312 million were women. 1.05 million polling stations were set up. Fifteen million workers ensured that every Indian who wished to vote could. This is the largest democratic exercise in human history.”
Rajiv Kumar, former Chief Election Commissioner
Press conference, June 2024
14 · The scaleFour numbers

The largest democratic exercise.

~642 Mvoters
Indians who voted in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections — more than the populations of the US, Russia, and Japan combined.
Election Commission of India, 2024
~312 Mwomen
Women who voted in 2024 — the highest-ever female voter participation. In several states, female turnout exceeded male turnout.
ECI Gender Voter Turnout Data
~1.05 Mbooths
Polling stations across India, managed by 15 million election workers across 44 days and 7 phases.
ECI Election Infrastructure Report
~₹1.35 L cr
Estimated total spending in the 2024 general election — candidates, parties, and state machinery combined. The most expensive election in world history.
Centre for Media Studies
What worksFour cases

Four electoral models.

India · the EVM-VVPAT system

Domestic innovation at scale

Indian EVMs are stand-alone, not networked, and paired with VVPAT audit trails since 2019. The Supreme Court rejected 2024 petitions seeking a return to paper ballots, citing the EVM-VVPAT system’s integrity. The model has been studied by several developing-democracy electoral bodies.

Brazil · TSE

The digital-court model

Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court runs electronic voting for 150 million voters and is notable for quick result-declaration and public-facing transparency dashboards. The Brazilian model is more vertically integrated than India’s; each has strengths.

India · ADR/MyNeta

Civic-tech candidate transparency

Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR) successfully petitioned the Supreme Court in 2003 to require candidates to disclose assets, criminal records, and education. MyNeta.info aggregates these disclosures for every candidate in every election since 2004 — one of the most consequential civic-tech interventions in Indian democracy.

Global · IFES

Electoral assistance at scale

IFES (International Foundation for Electoral Systems) has advised on electoral reform in 140+ countries since 1987. The India election is their most frequently cited reference point for population-scale logistics.

What would workSix levers

Six things that would deepen the democracy.

01
Restore transparency to political finance
Electoral bonds are gone. What replaces them is unresolved. Mandatory disclosure of donations above a low threshold, real-time donor transparency, and strict audit enforcement would bring Indian political finance into line with peer democracies. The political will to legislate has been absent for a decade; 2024 is the moment to revisit.
02
Resolve the delimitation question
The 84th Amendment froze Lok Sabha seat counts until the first post-2026 Census. That Census has been delayed. The Women’s Reservation Act depends on it. The 131st Amendment (2026) attempt to delink failed on the floor. The question is overdue and politically combustible.
03
Structural independence for the ECI
The 2023 CEC & ECs Appointment Act gave the executive a majority on the selection panel; civil-society petitions are before the courts. Security of tenure, post-retirement bars, and independent funding all matter for the ECI to maintain the institutional reputation it has built.
04
Mandate machine-readable candidate disclosure
ADR’s MyNeta has done this voluntarily for two decades. Machine-readable disclosure mandated by ECI in all Indian languages would compound the transparency effect.
05
Address criminal-candidate share
~40% of 2024 MPs face criminal cases (ADR analysis). Supreme Court directions requiring parties to publicly justify such nominations exist; compliance is patchy. Enforcement would change the incentive structure for ticket distribution.
06
Consider public funding of elections
The Indrajit Gupta Committee (1998) and Law Commission (1999, 2015) both recommended public funding. A comprehensive political-finance reform package combining disclosure, public funding, and private-donation caps has been on the table for decades; 2024 is the moment for a cross-party conversation.
“Indian elections are a triumph of logistics and a challenge for substance. The voting happens; the accountability too often does not. The question we should be asking is not whether we conduct the largest election well — we do — but whether we use it to produce governance that works.”
Yogendra Yadav
On Indian electoral reform, 2024
On the numbers

Election data comes from the Election Commission of India’s official Statistical Reports, released after each general election. The 2024 data was released as 42 statistical reports in late 2024.

Voter turnout is reported as polling-station turnout; gross turnout (including postal ballots) is slightly higher. Independent organisations (Lokniti-CSDS, ADR) produce parallel analyses.

Campaign expenditure estimates from Centre for Media Studies combine candidate, party, and state machinery spending; different methodologies produce figures within a broad range.

Sources & further reading

Primary data: Election Commission of India 2024 Statistical Reports; OGD Platform India; IndiaVotes.

Candidate / finance: Association for Democratic Reforms; MyNeta; Centre for Media Studies.

Research: Lokniti-CSDS post-election surveys; Yogendra Yadav, Suhas Palshikar; Pradeep Chhibber and Rahul Verma.

Part 15Growth · The economy

The growth
story.

India is the world’s 4th-largest economy by nominal GDP, 3rd-largest by purchasing power parity, and the fastest-growing major economy. Real GDP growth is projected at ~7.4% for FY 2025-26 — the highest in the G20. Over the past decade, the country has crossed ~$2 trillion of additional GDP, added 75+ new airports, built 45,000+ kilometres of 4-lane highway, and transitioned from mobile-phone importer to second-largest producer. FDI inflows have risen from $36 billion to ~$81 billion annually. The Global Innovation Index rank has moved from 81 to 38 in a decade. The growth story is real; the manufacturing share remains the unfinished question.

In 2014, India was the world’s ninth-largest economy. By 2026, it is the world’s 4th-largest by nominal GDP and 3rd-largest by purchasing power parity, having overtaken the UK, France, and Japan in nominal terms (the IMF April 2026 ranking briefly placed India 6th nominal due to rupee depreciation against the dollar; underlying growth in rupee terms remains strong). The economy has added more nominal GDP in eleven years than in the sixty that preceded. This is not a gentle trajectory; it is a structural acceleration.

Infrastructure has followed the macro story. 149 airports today vs 74 a decade ago. Over 45,000 km of 4-lane and above highways, including the Delhi-Mumbai Expressway, Ganga Expressway, Dwarka Expressway. Expanded port capacity. Metro networks in over 20 cities. Foreign exchange reserves above $687 billion. FDI inflows have grown from ~$36 billion in FY14 to ~$81 billion in FY25 — and manufacturing FDI alone has risen ~69% cumulatively to cross $165 billion over a decade.

The manufacturing push is the central economic bet of this period. India aims to raise manufacturing’s share of GDP toward 25% (from around 16%) by 2035 under the new National Manufacturing Mission. PLI schemes in 14 sectors have attracted ~₹2 lakh crore in cumulative investment, with incremental production/sales exceeding ₹18 lakh crore and over 12 lakh direct and indirect jobs created. Mobile-phone manufacturing has gone from ~2 units a decade ago to ~300 today. Import dependence has fallen from ~75% of domestic demand to essentially zero. India is now the world’s second-largest mobile manufacturer.

China
27% GDP
Thailand
27% GDP
South Korea
25% GDP
Vietnam
24% GDP
Malaysia
23% GDP
Bangladesh
22% GDP
Germany
19% GDP
India
16% GDP
Brazil
11% GDP
United States
10% GDP

Manufacturing value-added as % of GDP (approximate, most recent available). Source: World Bank national accounts; Economic Survey 2024-25 (new base-year GVA series shows India rising from 14.5% to 16.3% between 2022-23 and 2024-25). Different sources use different definitions of manufacturing; figures directional.

Global context

Real GDP growth rates, FY 2024-25: India ~7.4%, China ~5.0%, United States ~2.5%, EU ~0.8%, Japan ~1.0%, Brazil ~2.5%, South Africa ~1.0%. India is the only large economy consistently growing above 6%.

Manufacturing share of GDP is the structural gap. China, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Thailand, and Malaysia are all above 22%; India sits near 16%. The gap is the link between Chapter 03 (Jobs) and Chapter 15 (Growth). Without a larger manufacturing share, the youth-employment problem cannot be solved durably.

What has been builtThe acceleration decade

The climb, compounding.

The past decade is the first time in independent India’s history that growth has been accompanied by a comparable structural-reform package. IBC, GST, corporate tax cut, PLI, DPI, logistics policy, DBT, fiscal consolidation, manufacturing focus. None of these individually explains the growth; together they constitute the most coherent growth-policy architecture India has ever had.

2014
Make in India launched — first structural commitment to raising manufacturing share. Initial target of 25% GDP contribution by 2025.
2016
Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code — structural commercial-law reform that eventually cleared the bad-loan logjam.
2016
World Bank Doing Business ranking: India at 130. Ten-year journey to 63 by 2020 (ranking discontinued in 2021).
2017
GST rollout — single biggest indirect-tax reform in independent India. Subsequent years see steady formalisation of the SME economy.
2019
Corporate tax rate cut to 22% base, 15% for new manufacturing — the most aggressive corporate-tax reform in two decades.
2020
Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes launched across 14 sectors with cumulative outlay ~₹1.97 lakh crore. Structural commitment to manufacturing scaling.
2020-25
Atmanirbhar Bharat, National Logistics Policy, National Infrastructure Pipeline — stacked infrastructure and industrial-policy architecture.
2022-24
Mobile manufacturing transition completes: from ~75% imported phones in 2014 to essentially 100% domestic by 2024. Second-largest global producer.
2024
Global Innovation Index rank rises to 38 (from 81 in 2015). R&D spending rising; startup ecosystem third-largest globally.
2025
National Manufacturing Mission announced in Budget 2025-26. Target: 25% GDP share by 2035 (extended from 2025). 143 million jobs; $1.2 trillion merchandise exports.
2025
Three sovereign credit upgrades in a single year: Morningstar DBRS, S&P Global Ratings, and Japan’s R&I — the first sustained upgrade cycle in over a decade.
Early 2026
India-EU FTA agreed in principle in early 2026, after 20 years of negotiation. Tariff cuts on ~90%+ of goods. Final signing pending legal scrub; implementation targeted for 2027.
Early 2026
MoSPI revises GDP base year from 2011-12 to 2022-23. The revision lowers nominal GDP for FY26 from ~₹357 lakh crore (old series) to ~₹345 lakh crore (new series). FY26 real-GDP growth ~7.4% in old series, 7.6% in new.
2025-26
Real GDP growth ~7.4-7.6%, fastest in G20. Exports April-December 2025 ~$635 billion. FDI inflows ~$81 billion. Forex reserves ~$687 billion. The IMF in late 2025 issued a ‘C’ rating on India’s national-accounts methodology, flagging that informal-sector measurement remains a gap.
“Manufacturing is the one sector that takes unskilled workers and converts them into skilled workers at scale. No country has become prosperous without it. India’s growth story needs manufacturing to close the last mile.”
Raghuram Rajan, former RBI Governor
On India’s development trajectory, 2024
15 · The climbFour numbers

The ascent, quantified.

~7.4%growth
Real GDP growth estimated for FY 2025-26 — the fastest of any major economy. India has averaged ~7% over the past decade excluding the pandemic year.
Economic Survey 2024-25; IMF
~₹2 L crinvested
Cumulative investment under PLI schemes across 14 sectors, late 2025. Incremental production/sales have crossed ₹18 lakh crore. Over 12 lakh direct and indirect jobs created.
Ministry of Commerce & Industry
~$635 Bexports
India’s total exports, April-December 2025 — up ~4.3% year-on-year. Manufacturing exports have gone from a modest base to record-setting monthly peaks.
Ministry of Commerce
$687 Breserves
Foreign exchange reserves, mid-2025 — the fifth-largest globally. Import cover and macro-buffer position has strengthened substantially.
RBI Weekly Statistical Supplement
What worksFour growth cases

Four growth models.

China · 1990-2010

The manufacturing-led miracle

China moved from ~10% of GDP from manufacturing to ~32% in two decades. Absorbed 200 million workers out of agriculture into formal manufacturing. The original template for what India’s National Manufacturing Mission is attempting, at a different starting point and with different political conditions.

Vietnam · 2000-present

The FDI-enabled convergence

Vietnam went from manufacturing share of ~16% to ~24% in two decades, largely through disciplined FDI attraction and trade-agreement-driven market access. Vietnamese exports have grown at a pace India’s trade policy is trying to replicate through bilateral FTAs with Australia, UAE, UK (under negotiation), EU (under negotiation).

India · The IT services story

Services-led growth at a billion people

India’s IT services export story (~$200 billion annually) is the clearest example in developing-country economics of a services sector generating formal middle-class jobs at population scale. The question for the next decade is whether manufacturing can do the same at an even larger employment scale.

India · Mobile manufacturing

From importer to second-largest producer

India went from 2 mobile-manufacturing units in 2014 to ~300 in 2024. From 75% imports to ~0%. From insignificant exports to ~₹2 lakh crore in FY25. The clearest case of PLI delivering structural transformation in a single sector at scale. The template other sectors (textiles, electronics components, semiconductors) are being designed to follow.

What would workSix levers

Six things that would close the last mile.

01
Deepen labour-intensive manufacturing
PLI has worked best in capital-intensive sectors (electronics, pharma, auto). The next wave must target labour-intensive sectors — textiles, footwear, leather, toys, food processing — where employment multipliers are 3-4× higher per rupee of investment. PM MITRA textile parks, footwear focus-product scheme, and the National Manufacturing Mission are the vehicles.
02
Fix the ease-of-doing-business residual
India has made enormous progress but state-level variation remains large. Land acquisition, contract enforcement, and utility connections are the three persistent drags. State-to-state EoDB rankings (DPIIT) are creating productive competition; sustained push for convergence would close the gap.
03
Invest in skilling for modern manufacturing
Industry 4.0 manufacturing needs different skills than 1990s assembly. ITI modernisation, National Apprenticeship Promotion Scheme (NAPS), and industry-integrated B.Voc / B.Sc programmes are the scaffolding. Scale and quality are the gaps.
04
Close trade agreements
FTAs with UAE and Australia are operational; UK, EU, and Oman are under negotiation. These matter more for Indian manufacturing than they’re credited for. Tariff rationalisation and ruleset predictability attract global supply chains. The template: Vietnam and Mexico’s FTA-led manufacturing expansion.
05
Build the infrastructure behind the factory
Ports, logistics, power reliability, roads. Most of India’s manufacturing underperformance relative to Vietnam, Bangladesh, or Thailand is logistics-cost, not labour-cost. National Logistics Policy 2022 is the framework; execution is ongoing.
06
Protect macro stability
Fast growth without macro stability becomes Argentina. Fiscal consolidation, inflation targeting, independent RBI, and a disciplined current-account stance are the unglamorous foundations on which high growth compounds. The post-2014 macro framework has been more disciplined than the pre-2014 one; staying the course is the arbitrage.
“India has an unusual combination: a large, young workforce; a stable macro framework; structural reform coming into effect; and a global environment looking for alternatives to China in supply-chain terms. This is the widest open window for a sustained manufacturing scale-up India has had in its history.”
Arvind Subramanian, former Chief Economic Adviser
On India’s growth outlook, 2024
On the numbers

GDP figures come from the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation. A new base-year (2022-23) GVA series was introduced in 2026 with slightly different methodology from the earlier 2011-12 series; some figures reported here blend both. Manufacturing-share figures vary by source: old series, new series, and World Bank all report slightly different numbers.

FDI and export figures come from RBI and Ministry of Commerce; PLI investment figures from Ministry of Commerce & Industry. All are directional.

Growth-rate projections vary across IMF, World Bank, ADB, and domestic sources; the ~7.4% figure for FY26 is from the Economic Survey and broadly consistent across sources.

Sources & further reading

Primary data: Economic Survey 2024-25; Ministry of Commerce & Industry; MoSPI National Accounts; RBI Annual Report 2024-25.

Research: Ideas for India; India Brand Equity Foundation; World Bank India Development Update; IMF World Economic Outlook; Arvind Subramanian, Raghuram Rajan, Pinaki Chakraborty.

Commentary: Mint; Business Standard; Hindu BusinessLine.

Part 16Build-out · Physical and digital

The build-out.

India’s physical and digital infrastructure has expanded at a pace few large economies match. National highways from around 91,000 km to about 146,000 km. Electrified railway tracks from about 40% to over 95%. Operational airports from around 75 to over 150. Installed electricity capacity from around 250 GW to about 530 GW. Metro lines from 9 cities to 24. Internet subscribers from around 25 crore to over 95 crore. 4G/5G population coverage from roughly 10% to near-universal. A decade of build-out. The gaps remain; the pace has been real.

If a single Indian of ordinary means were to describe what changed most visibly in their everyday environment over the past decade, it would not be a policy or a slogan. It would be the road. The fact that a bus from their village reaches the district headquarters in two hours, not five. That the phone they bought for under eight thousand rupees streams video at speeds that would have been premium-tier broadband in 2015. That their train has stopped running on diesel. That the neighbouring town now has an airport.

This is the quiet infrastructure story of the past decade, and it is an unusually consequential one. Infrastructure rarely makes headlines except when something goes wrong. But under the noise, a set of structural build-outs have happened simultaneously: national highways, rail electrification, regional airports, metro rail, installed power capacity (see the Energy chapter), the payments stack, the broadband stack, ports and waterways, and the supply-chain logistics network.

None of this is complete. Highway quality varies sharply by state. Railway modernisation is uneven. Airport expansion has concentrated in tier-1 and tier-2 cities; tier-3 connectivity lags. Urban metro networks are partial in most cities. Broadband last-mile quality varies by district. The direction of travel is strong; the finish line is not close.

National highway km
146k km
State highway km (approx)
180k km
Major district road km
630k km
Rural road km (PMGSY+)
760k km

Road network lengths in India, 2024, approximate. Sources: MoRTH Annual Report 2023-24; Economic Survey 2024-25. Road category definitions vary; figures are directional. State highway data varies across reporting frames.

Global context

India’s national highway length grew from around 91,000 km in 2014 to approximately 146,000 km by 2024. In absolute terms, India is building highway kilometres at the second-highest annual pace globally after China, and has done so for most of the past decade. Daily construction rates have ranged between 20 and 37 km per day over the last five years, depending on the measurement window.

For comparative scale: China’s national expressway network is roughly 180,000 km; the US Interstate Highway System is about 80,000 km. India’s operational access-controlled expressway network, a subset of total NH, has expanded from around 90 km in 2014 to about 3,000 km at end-2025, with another ~10,000 km under construction or awarded. The government targets 18,000 km of operational expressways by 2028-29. The scale is comparable to major build-out decades in China and mid-century US.

What has been doneA decade of build-out

The scaffolding, extended.

The pace of infrastructure build-out over the past decade is difficult to overstate, even for those who track it closely. What sits below is a compressed timeline of the structural shifts — roads, rail, air, urban transit, power, digital — that together reshape what is physically possible for people and firms operating in India.

2014
~91,000 km national highway network. About 40% of railway track electrified. ~75 operational airports. Installed electricity capacity ~250 GW. UPI does not yet exist.
2015-16
Bharatmala Pariyojana and Sagarmala launched — the integrated highway and port-led development programmes that anchor much of the subsequent build-out. UDAN regional connectivity scheme begins.
2017-18
GST rollout reshapes interstate logistics; the old “border check-post” model collapses, with measurable gains in truck turnaround times. UPI crosses 100 crore monthly transactions for the first time.
2019-20
First Regional Rapid Transit System (RRTS) construction begins between Delhi and Meerut. Vande Bharat Express enters service. Ayushman Bharat PM-JAY and Jal Jeevan Mission both launch.
2021
PM Gati Shakti National Master Plan launched — a digital platform integrating infrastructure planning across 16+ ministries. One of the more consequential governance-of-infrastructure reforms in decades.
2022
National Logistics Policy notified. 5G services commercially launched in India.
2023
Railway electrification crosses 95%. Installed power capacity crosses 400 GW. Dedicated Freight Corridors (Eastern and Western) begin commercial operations across most of their length.
2024
Expressway network crosses 5,000 km. Metro rail operational in 24 cities, up from 9 a decade earlier. 5G subscriber base crosses 25 crore in under two years — one of the fastest rollouts globally.
2025-26
National Highway network ~146,000 km. Airports operational 150+. UPI processes ~22 billion transactions a month, roughly half of global real-time-payment volume. Installed power capacity ~530 GW; non-fossil share crosses 53%, with India ranked 3rd globally in renewable capacity (per IRENA).
“The infrastructure build-out of the past decade is perhaps the most consequential change in India’s economic geography since liberalisation. The question for the next decade is not whether we can build, but whether we can operate, maintain, and integrate what we have built.”
Amitabh Kant, G20 Sherpa and former CEO, NITI Aayog
On PM Gati Shakti and the infrastructure decade, 2024
16 · The buildFour numbers

The decade, in four figures.

~146kkm
National highway network, 2024 (up from ~91k in 2014). Approximately 60% increase; expressway component expanded roughly 25-fold.
MoRTH Annual Report 2023-24
~95%+electrified
Of India’s broad-gauge railway network now runs on electricity (up from ~40% in 2014). One of the fastest rail electrification programmes globally in the post-2000s era.
Ministry of Railways, 2024-25
150+airports
Operational airports across India (up from ~75 in 2014). UDAN regional connectivity scheme has added tier-2 and tier-3 city links, though utilisation remains uneven.
Ministry of Civil Aviation, 2025
~50%of global RTP
Of the world’s real-time-payment transactions now happen on India’s UPI rails — a system that did not exist before 2016. ~22 billion transactions a month at ~₹29 lakh crore in value. The IMF formally recognised UPI as the world’s largest real-time payment system.
NPCI; IMF 2025-26
What worksFour cases

Four case studies.

India · 2021-ongoing

PM Gati Shakti: the planning layer

The Gati Shakti National Master Plan integrates infrastructure project data from 16+ ministries and all states into a single GIS platform. Roads, rail, telecom, pipelines, power transmission, and logistics clusters can be planned with visibility to each other rather than in silos. The old practice of building a road only to dig it up for a water pipeline six months later — and both again for a telecom cable — has measurably declined in the projects that use the platform. A governance innovation as much as an infrastructure one.

India · 2016-ongoing

UPI and the digital payments rails

The Unified Payments Interface — a public digital infrastructure layer operated by NPCI — enabled real-time interoperable payments across banks. From zero in 2016, UPI now processes roughly half of the world’s real-time payment transactions by volume — about 22 billion a month, formally recognised by the IMF as the world’s largest real-time payment system. The marginal cost of sending money from one Indian to another has fallen to effectively zero. The second-order effects on small-merchant commerce, gig-work payouts, and MSME working-capital cycles are still being worked out.

China · 2008-2020

The high-speed rail decade

China built the world’s largest high-speed rail network, from roughly 700 km in 2008 to over 40,000 km by 2020. The lesson most cited: sustained political commitment over a decade, plus predictable financing, plus technology transfer that became indigenous capability. India’s Vande Bharat, RRTS, and upcoming Mumbai-Ahmedabad bullet train are the adapted framework; the scale is meaningfully smaller, the institutional architecture comparable.

India · 2019-ongoing

Metro rail: from 9 to 24 cities

Operational metro networks expanded from 9 cities in 2014 to 24 by 2024, with Delhi-NCR, Mumbai, Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Kochi, Jaipur, Lucknow, Nagpur, Ahmedabad, Kanpur, Pune, Navi Mumbai among the active networks. Over 1,000 route km now operational nationally; another ~1,000 under construction. Ridership patterns vary widely; Delhi Metro alone carries over 7 million passengers per day on most working days.

What would workSix levers

Six things that would extend the decade.

01
Finish the modernisation on paper
Dedicated Freight Corridors are nearly operational; Vande Bharat is expanding; the Regional Rapid Transit System has one working corridor. The next phase is completing the rolling stock, station modernisation, and freight-shift pricing that actually delivers the mode shift from road to rail.
02
Shift focus from build to operate-and-maintain
India has built a lot of infrastructure in a decade. The institutional muscle for operating and maintaining it — particularly at municipal and district levels — remains under-built. The 15th Finance Commission’s O&M financing recommendations are the structural starting point.
03
Extend regional connectivity, carefully
UDAN has connected many tier-2 and tier-3 cities by air. Utilisation is mixed. Better route economics — not more routes — is likely the next-phase question. The same applies to Vande Bharat and expressway extensions beyond the trunk network.
04
Integrate infrastructure planning with environmental review
Gati Shakti has made infrastructure planning more integrated across ministries. Environmental clearances, forest clearances, and community consultations have often lagged the engineering timelines. Building these into the same digital platform — rather than treating them as end-stage hurdles — would reduce both project delays and community conflicts.
05
Close the urban transit gap in tier-2 cities
Metro networks are partial in most of the 24 operational cities and absent in most others. Light rail, bus rapid transit, and e-bus networks are cheaper and faster to deploy. PM e-Bus Sewa is the funding vehicle; state and ULB procurement capacity is the constraint.
06
Price digital infrastructure access as a right
UPI is free for citizens; the cross-subsidy mechanics for banks and PSPs will need careful tuning as volumes scale further. The policy question is how to keep the open, interoperable, free-to-citizen model viable as the infrastructure matures. This is the next decade’s DPI question and is genuinely novel.
“Capital expenditure by the Union government on infrastructure has nearly tripled in real terms over the past decade. The challenge for the coming decade is converting this stock of physical capital into a corresponding stock of economic productivity.”
Economic Survey 2024-25
Chapter on Infrastructure and Capital Formation
On the numbers

Infrastructure metrics in India come from multiple ministries with distinct reporting frames — MoRTH for roads, Ministry of Railways for rail, DGCA and AAI for airports, MoP for power, CEA for generation capacity, DoT and TRAI for telecom, MoHUA for metros. Where state-level data exists, it varies in comparability across reporting periods.

Headline figures here are rounded and drawn from the most recent government releases. “Kilometres built” numbers can vary across sources depending on whether they count additions, widening, upgrades, or the total network. Treat all specific figures as directional indicators of pace and scale.

The infrastructure build-out is broad-based but not uniform; state-level gaps are substantial. The data here captures the national picture.

Sources & further reading

Primary data: MoRTH Annual Report 2023-24; Indian Railways Annual Statistical Statements; Airports Authority of India; Central Electricity Authority; TRAI quarterly performance indicators; NPCI UPI statistics.

Research: EAC-PM working papers on infrastructure; Economic Survey 2024-25 infrastructure chapter; PRS Legislative Research Union Budget analyses; Observer Research Foundation infrastructure series.

Policy: PM Gati Shakti National Master Plan; National Logistics Policy 2022; National Infrastructure Pipeline; Bharatmala, Sagarmala, UDAN; Dedicated Freight Corridor Project documentation.

AboutThe creator & the community

The people
behind this.

A brief note on who built this, why, and what else they do.

Yash Agarwal

Yash is a technology and internet policy practitioner based in New Delhi. He works in Global Stakeholder Engagement at ICANN, focusing on internet governance in South Asia. He previously served as Twitter India’s first Public Policy Fellow from South Asia, held government affairs advisory roles at Chase India, and was a LAMP Fellow in the Indian Parliament.

He teaches as guest faculty across 30+ institutions in India, serves on Boards of Studies at multiple universities, and advises organisations working at the intersection of public policy, technology, and education.

He is also the founder of Public Policy India (PPI).

Find him at yashagarwal.info or on LinkedIn.

Public Policy India

Public Policy India (PPI) is India’s largest community for public policy and social impact. It runs across 30+ city chapters, hosts a newsletter, a large WhatsApp community, and in-person capacity-building engagements across India and South Asia.

The community exists to make public policy less abstract and more accessible for students, early-career professionals, and anyone curious about how India actually works. Many Indias is a PPI data project — part of a broader effort to put credible, sourced data about the country into the hands of people who want to understand it without wading through three PDFs and two dashboards to do so.

Find PPI at publicpolicyindia.com.

About this project

Many Indias is a single-page data dashboard and reference series covering fifteen themes that shape everyday life in India. The underlying data is drawn from credible, publicly available government and independent sources (listed on the dashboard itself and at the bottom of each chapter). The project is opinionated about how to read the numbers but tries to be transparent about the sources and their limits.

Corrections, suggestions, and arguments are welcome. The best way to send them is through the PPI website or LinkedIn.

— Delhi, 2026 —